Cybertruck

[veeman]

Actually, there are zero versions   These are all just ideas, just like the Roadster that's going to fly, robotaxis, Optimus robots, etc.

How many Cybertrucks do you think they'll sell this year?  How about Q1 of 2024?

I think they will sell < 200 by the end of the first quarter of 2024.   By the time the next POTUS takes office (early 2025) they will be selling 25 thousand a quarter. I think this will coincide (early 2025) with Ford and GM asking govt for bailout of their EV divisions.

[Laconian]

You cannot view this attachment.

[Morris Minor]

The interwebs are going to explode with videos of these being coal-rolled, vandalized & graffitirized, by the brethren of the pickup truck community.

[GoCougs]

Haha. How could it not be a traget? It looks so awful.

[veeman]

Honestly I think it looks great and I'm not a Tesla fanboy. Great idea to make it slightly smaller than original design making it much more real world public road and garage friendly. While it may be a fingerprint magnet, that color (silver) also hides dirt/grime the best. This car will also likely be one of if not the safest car on the road given it's weight, the low center of gravity of EVs, and likely large crush zones. Other problems with trucks of this size (fuel economy and large turning radius) are also not an issue given its an EV and standard across all models rear-wheel steering. 

Most guys I think will gladly hand in the keys to their Model 3 or Model Y to get this car and most wives, I think, will, without admitting it, be happy their geeky husband feels and looks a bit more masculine with this car. This car blurs the line between small dick energy and cool. Some will think the former. Others will think the latter. This car blurs the line between practical and purely fun car. It's rear seating area is not small, it's just small enough to fit in a standard size garage (within the U.S.), and it's not a pain in the ass to maneuver in small spaces.

The only questions for me are will the NVH suck and how bad is the fit and finish going to be. Going by history, the typical Tesla buyer (of which there are a lot) has been willing to put up with poor fit and finish of the Model 3 and Model Y and most of them are tolerating (albeit griping a bit) of the poor ride quality of the Model Y. 

[veeman]

Also Teslas are a bit less prone to random vandalizing because most people are aware those cars often have (or perhaps always come with) outside video camera surveillance. 

[veeman]

There are 2 million people who handed over 100 bucks for a pre-order.  All of them knew what the Cybertruck looked like prior to handing over their deposit and the actual rendition is faithful to the original design shown. I admit I'm wrong about 75% of people rescinding their deposit.  It will be a far higher percentage. But even if 95% rescind their deposit, that's still 100,000 cars already spoken for. And because of the lack of dealership model of Tesla, there is no bullshit dealership markup on highly sought after cars which is business as usual for Ford/GM. 

[Laconian]

The preorders are cheap and refundable, not a strong demand signal. And they were made when the Cybertruck would start at $39,900. It's definitely not going to be that cheap.

[veeman]

The preorders are cheap and refundable, not a strong demand signal. And they were made when the Cybertruck would start at $39,900. It's definitely not going to be that cheap.

It'll be 10 grand more, for RWD single motor model, because I don't think Musk will price his truck significantly higher than the Lightning. They may not get around to making those cheaper versions until latter half of 2024 or even first quarter of 2025 but the factory (or outdoor tent) wheels are turning. 

Given the starting price of base model Y is $47490 and $54490 for the performance model, it's not significantly different. And that's before potential $7500 federal tax credit. 

If 1 out of 20 of those early depositers goes through with it, that's still 100,000 trucks already spoken for.

[giant_mtb]

It'll be 10 grand more, for RWD single motor model, because I don't think Musk will price his truck significantly higher than the Lightning. They may not get around to making those cheaper versions until latter half of 2024 or even first quarter of 2025 but the factory (or outdoor tent) wheels are turning. 

Given the starting price of base model Y is $47490 and $54490 for the performance model, it's not significantly different. And that's before potential $7500 federal tax credit. 

If 1 out of 20 of those early depositers goes through with it, that's still 100,000 trucks already spoken for.

And Ford will continue to sell well over half a million F-series trucks annually.

[veeman]

And Ford will continue to sell well over half a million F-series trucks annually.

Yes.

My question is how many Lightnings will Ford sell annually?

The soon coming (within 1.5 to 2 year I predict) bailouts for GM and Ford will be for their EV divisions.  They both make and I think will continue to make great profit on their ICE pickup and SUV portfolio.

The media and Ford and GM themselves reporting that all of their R&D is towards their EV division is a big error in judgement on their part, unless that's false information. 

[GoCougs]

Detroit was screwed either way. They see Tesla seemingly rewriting the rules of the US auto industry, but Detroit is smart enough to know that's because it's Tesla, not because of EVs. So Detroit tiptoes into EVs, to be prepared for government mandates, and though it hasn't been a disaster, turns out there is no legit success (profitability) in sight without a mangled if not busted UAW, massive government bailouts and a complete restructuring of the US auto industry, including infrastructure (from fueling, to dealer/repair network, to the supplier base). However, had Detroit not tiptoed into EVs, they'd have been BBQ'd by various sociopolitical forces, and if mandates then became a thing, they'd be 5-10 years behind, sealing their fate.

Seems Toyota and Honda played it about right (as of now - could change), since they're not beholden to the UAW nor to the US government (or at least not the extent Detroit is).

[Laconian]

https://www.thedrive.com/news/even-the-tesla-cybertrucks-brake-lights-dont-make-sense

The CHMSL reinvented from cost-conscious First Principles(TM)

[giant_mtb]

Nah man, that's just like, the genius of Elon, man. Less lights means, like, less speed.

[Laconian]

https://twitter.com/DimaZeniuk/status/1716556240908681538

Production ready off-roading. What's that banging sound??

[Morris Minor]

Musk once called the Model X an exercise in hubris.
I think this is the same.
I was wracking my brain to think of an equivalent and came up with the Hummer H2; the Cybertruck is to the 2020s as the H2 was to the 20-aughts.

[MrH]

The size of this A-pillar !  This is just a total train wreck

[AutobahnSHO]

https://twitter.com/DimaZeniuk/status/1716556240908681538

Production ready off-roading. What's that banging sound??

Sounded like someone banging on the Jeep.

But I'll bet that Jeep can get up hills no way this thing will....

[giant_mtb]

https://twitter.com/DimaZeniuk/status/1716556240908681538

Production ready off-roading. What's that banging sound??

Pretty sure the banging is coming from the guy untying/tying down that Jeep on the trailer she pans to at the end. lol

[CaminoRacer]

I like the other Tesla models, but I have not seen a single redeeming feature of the Cybertruck. Still a complete WTF.

[Laconian]

I like the other Tesla models, but I have not seen a single redeeming feature of the Cybertruck. Still a complete WTF.

Ditto.. form over function in so many important places where competitors put function over form. I'm super curious if the the 45 degree sloped sides of the payload are going to make it to production.

[Rich]

The size of this A-pillar !  This is just a total train wreck

Doesn't look like much room between the front of the seat and the front edge of the door, unless I'm seeing the trailing edge of the front door in the photo

[giant_mtb]

Doesn't look like much room between the front of the seat and the front edge of the door, unless I'm seeing the trailing edge of the front door in the photo

Yeah that's the trailing edge. You can see the latch/lock mechanism.

[Laconian]

I've had issues with crosswalk pedestrian visibility in all of my recent cars thanks to their airbag-equipped thicker A-pillars. This is insane, though. Is it even physically possible to get a proper look around that blindspot if you're seated and belted in?

[CaminoRacer]

I've had issues with crosswalk pedestrian visibility in all of my recent cars thanks to their airbag-equipped thicker A-pillars. This is insane, though. Is it even physically possible to get a proper look around that blindspot if you're seated and belted in?

The driver will need a mirror on a stick

[FoMoJo]

It looks just as weird on the inside as on the outside.  Where're the pedals?

[GoCougs]

And the yellow panic cutoff switch thingy?!

[Eye of the Tiger]

And the yellow panic cutoff switch thingy?!

Does it clip to your body like the safety key on a treadmill?

[Laconian]

It looks just as weird on the inside as on the outside.  Where're the pedals?

I can't believe it's going to sell for a hundred grand, but I guess steel prison toilets are probably pretty expensive too.

[MrH]

They're going to sell a handful to employees with strict NDAs.  It won't be made in serious volume.  It's the Tesla Semi truck all over again.