Why Are So Many American Pedestrians Dying at Night?

[CaminoRacer]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/11/upshot/nighttime-deaths.html

Sometime around 2009, American roads started to become deadlier for pedestrians, particularly at night. Fatalities have risen ever since, reversing the effects of decades of safety improvements. And it's not clear why.

Click the link to read it, it has graphs and stuff. The ones at the top are interesting, since it shows that pedestrian deaths in the day haven't changed a lot while deaths at night has gone up a ton.

Gift link if needed: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/11/upshot/nighttime-deaths.html?unlocked_article_code=1.FE0.BAjM.sTRIy-9bFVRJ&smid=url-share

[Morris Minor]

I read that this morning. One of the reader comments was that there was not enough hard data in all this, and a targeted research study was needed: pick a metro area somewhere and get some serious numbers. Right now we're guessing: clothes are too dark, dazzled by too-bright modern headlights, too many homeless. Could be anything.

[GoCougs]

So the it's due to lack of light otherwise issues like increases in DUI, cell phone use, bigger/heavier vehicles, etc., (which IS happening) would worsen the daytime stats too. IME I've had a number of close calls and it's mostly been random idiots on dark roads they have absolutely no business being on (my bet is drunks and homeless). My hunches:

So many street lights are off - whether they're broken or turned off due to cost savings (my hunch is the latter)

Car headlights are TOO bright in that much vision is lost in opposing/surrounding traffic

Switch to asphalt (black) vs. concrete (gray) roads

[CaminoRacer]

I read that this morning. One of the reader comments was that there was not enough hard data in all this, and a targeted research study was needed: pick a metro area somewhere and get some serious numbers. Right now we're guessing: clothes are too dark, dazzled by too-bright modern headlights, too many homeless. Could be anything.

Yeah, I think the graphs were more interesting than the article. I don't think there's a great answer given in the article. More digging needed.

Car headlights are TOO bright in that much vision is lost in opposing/surrounding traffic

Brake lights too. As soon as DST ended this year and I had to drive home in the dark, it's really apparent how unnecessarily bright all the lights are. My vision at night is good but in that situation I can see why people hate driving in the dark. The contrast between the lights and the surroundings is too much.

(Driving through parts of I-80 in Wyoming is similar, even years ago with less bright headlights. Oncoming headlights to your left and absolute darkness everywhere else, so your eyes don't know what to do)

[Laconian]

Trucks are far likelier to kill pedestrians vs. cars at a given speed of collision. More kinetic energy, higher bumpers and hoods, etc. And IMO trucks are more likely to hit people, especially smaller people, because of poor sightlines.

On top of all the previously mentioned reasons.

[Laconian]

And phones... so many people looking at screens!!

[Laconian]

[veeman]

Anecdotally I see a lot of people driving very aggressively and impatiently, more so than prior decades. During the day the asshat can better see and avoid the pedestrian and vice versa the pedestrian can better see the asshat driver.

Maybe there's also less police presence.  More red light and speed cameras but less officers who are actually giving tickets for speeding on local roads. With Waze you know where the speed and red light cameras are located so you are more free to drive like an asshat without getting a ticket.

[AutobahnSHO]

Sorry but I think it's just more pedestrians Jay walking or otherwise not being careful.

Some of that is also reflected in the homeless rate.

[Eye of the Tiger]

I've almost been hit twice in the last month because I can't walk fast enough for the crosswalk timers. I'm not trying to beat it - I'm the one pushing the button.

[Morris Minor]

I have an acquaintance who advocates for urbanist type things like walkable neighborhoods, sidewalks, pedestrian crossings, narrower roads that slow traffic etc. Atlanta suffers from its share of stroads and freeways that isolate neighborhoods that were once linked into an organic whole.
https://www.threadatl.org/about/

[AutobahnSHO]

I have an acquaintance who advocates for urbanist type things like walkable neighborhoods, sidewalks, pedestrian crossings, narrower roads that slow traffic etc. Atlanta suffers from its share of stroads and freeways that isolate neighborhoods that were once linked into an organic whole.
https://www.threadatl.org/about/

There's a pedestrian tunnel under a major roadway here, I thought it odd at first but really appreciate the ease of use and how it doesn't slow traffic. They should put a couple signs up though so people know where it is- it's not obvious to the rando person.

[Morris Minor]

There's a pedestrian tunnel under a major roadway here, I thought it odd at first but really appreciate the ease of use and how it doesn't slow traffic. They should put a couple signs up though so people know where it is- it's not obvious to the rando person.

Better to put the road in the tunnel and the people above in the fresh air & sunshine.

[AutobahnSHO]

Better to put the road in the tunnel and the people above in the fresh air & sunshine.

Agree, this road is on a major hill though. Sidewalk stays pretty level as it goes a little bit into the hill then under the road.

[AutobahnSHO]

And I caveat my first statement, we also have a lot of people driving vehicles they shouldn't be

You cannot view this attachment.

[565]

I take care of alot of pedestrians struck that have fractures. The answer is embedded in the article and the rest of musings of the article is largely pointless.

It mentioned that 70% of ped deaths are homeless. The real number is probably higher because many will say they live wifh a friend or family but actually on the streets. They also mention most of the increases happen in low socioeconomic areas.

We have a saying that trauma is a chronic diease.  Normal people would never become pedestrians struck for the most part.

I've probably taken care of hundreds of pedestrians struck, and I can probably count on two hands the number that weren't some largely homeless drunk, high, mentally ill, or some combination of the three. I've taken care of some people that have been struck by cars 4 or 5 times in just a few years. That's why the majority of these cases never make the news, and in the rare circumstances it is a normal person that got hit, they do make the news and they make a memorial at the street corner, etc.  These people basically stumble right into fast moving traffic at night with dark clothing and behave unpredictably.

I bet if they plotted homeless people numbers over time, where the homeless have migrated, and when they are most active, it would correlate well with ped deaths.

The few normal people I did take care of with pedestrian struck injuries mostly involved family members running each other over by accident.  Kids running behind their parents pulling out, husbands/wives hitting the spouse trying to help them park etc.

[Eye of the Tiger]

Homelessness is terrible. Good thing the cities are making public spaces homeless-proof by making the benches too uncomfortable to sleep on.

[GoCougs]

I take care of alot of pedestrians struck that have fractures. The answer is embedded in the article and the rest of musings of the article is largely pointless.

It mentioned that 70% of ped deaths are homeless. The real number is probably higher because many will say they live wifh a friend or family but actually on the streets. They also mention most of the increases happen in low socioeconomic areas.

We have a saying that trauma is a chronic diease.  Normal people would never become pedestrians struck for the most part.

I've probably taken care of hundreds of pedestrians struck, and I can probably count on two hands the number that weren't some largely homeless drunk, high, mentally ill, or some combination of the three. I've taken care of some people that have been struck by cars 4 or 5 times in just a few years. That's why the majority of these cases never make the news, and in the rare circumstances it is a normal person that got hit, they do make the news and they make a memorial at the street corner, etc.  These people basically stumble right into fast moving traffic at night with dark clothing and behave unpredictably.

I bet if they plotted homeless people numbers over time, where the homeless have migrated, and when they are most active, it would correlate well with ped deaths.

The few normal people I did take care of with pedestrian struck injuries mostly involved family members running each other over by accident.  Kids running behind their parents pulling out, husbands/wives hitting the spouse trying to help them park etc.

The issue tracks with nighttime though, not demographics - IOW, an increase in the population of homeless/disordered/dysfunctional would also show up as a general increase in ped deaths during the daytime too. It was also noted that ped deaths in the cities has dropped but increased in the 'burbs (have the homeless migrated to the 'burbs? I'm skeptical).

[565]

Homelessness is terrible. Good thing the cities are making public spaces homeless-proof by making the benches too uncomfortable to sleep on.

Many of the homeless have significant substance abuse problems and many of them have psychiatric illness or mental disability as well. They were largely dependent on their parents or guardians to take care of them when they were younger, but when the parents die or cannot do it anymore they just end up on the streets.

We got rid of most of the inpatient psych facilities because of horrid conditions in many of them, but it also means that people that were once in those facilities now have no place to go.

[565]

The issue tracks with nighttime though, not demographics - IOW, an increase in the population of homeless/disordered/dysfunctional would also show up as a general increase in ped deaths during the daytime too. It was also noted that ped deaths in the cities has dropped but increased in the 'burbs (have the homeless migrated to the 'burbs? I'm skeptical).

It's because homeless are often sleeping during the day and active at night.

https://homelessadvice.com/why-do-the-homeless-sleep-during-the-day/

That article discusses the reasons why.


They are indeed pushing more onto suburbs, due to perceived safety and crackdown efforts in cities.

https://invisiblepeople.tv/homelessness-is-quietly-exploding-in-suburban-america/amp/

https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/homelessness-spreading-denver-metro-area-arvada-colorado-foothills-evergreen/

[GoCougs]

It's because homeless are often sleeping during the day and active at night.

https://homelessadvice.com/why-do-the-homeless-sleep-during-the-day/

That article discusses the reasons why.


They are indeed pushing more onto suburbs, due to perceived safety and crackdown efforts in cities.

https://invisiblepeople.tv/homelessness-is-quietly-exploding-in-suburban-america/amp/

https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/homelessness-spreading-denver-metro-area-arvada-colorado-foothills-evergreen/

But that's arguing the habits and behavior of the homeless/etc. have materially changed in the last ~15 years, particularly re: daytime vs. nighttime behavior. Could be happening, but not alleged or presented with data in the article. The issue seems strongly related to nighttime (visibility).

[CaminoRacer]

Homelessness was the most interesting answer, but I think more data is needed. Overall homelessness hasn't risen in the past 15 years in official data, but it's well-known that the official data is not accurate because getting an accurate count is almost impossible without a lot more effort. It's possible that overall numbers don't need to increase if behavior changed, like congregating in different locations, using more/worse drugs, shelters closing, etc.

But I think there are other issues to look into as well - road growth and design, street lighting changes, and other similar things.

[Morris Minor]

We could solve this by issuing high-visibility clothing to the homeless.

[Eye of the Tiger]

Many of the homeless have significant substance abuse problems and many of them have psychiatric illness or mental disability as well. They were largely dependent on their parents or guardians to take care of them when they were younger, but when the parents die or cannot do it anymore they just end up on the streets.

We got rid of most of the inpatient psych facilities because of horrid conditions in many of them, but it also means that people that were once in those facilities now have no place to go.

It is too easy to become homeless. I could have easily been homeless during Covid if there wasn't a program to defer mortgage payments. My car got repossessed at the tail end of a deferment program. I am currently one month behind on every single bill, so it would only take a minor illness to put me put on the street.

[565]

But that's arguing the habits and behavior of the homeless/etc. have materially changed in the last ~15 years, particularly re: daytime vs. nighttime behavior. Could be happening, but not alleged or presented with data in the article. The issue seems strongly related to nighttime (visibility).

Drugs... to some extend alcohol but mostly drugs. That's what changed.

https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates

If you look at the drug overdose numbers in this country it mirrors the pedestrian fatality numbers.


This was a study done where I trained after I left. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7884480/

74% of pedestrians and bicyclists struck had a positive drug or ETOH screen.

I'm on the receiving end of those that get struck by a car and very few of them are sober normal people.

Most people don't get struck by cars because they don't walk in front of a moving car, simple as that. Even if the walk symbol is green/white, the vast majority of people still look and don't step in front of moving traffic and hope that they will stop.

People who get struck by cars are the ones that walk in front of cars.  We should be looking at why more people are walking in front of cars, rather than focusing on why cars aren't stopping.  All the high visability jackets and safety mandates won't help when someone stumbles out 3 feet in front of a car moving at 45mph.

[Laconian]

Anecdotally I have some friends that live near Beacon Hill in Seattle, which is near a major homeless encampment. They told me to go 10mph down a street, not the posted 25, and I soon found out why. A dude shambled across the dark street right in front of my car. His body was stooped over and he never looked away from his shoes the whole time. I likely would've hit him if I was going the posted speed limit.

[GoCougs]

Drugs... to some extend alcohol but mostly drugs. That's what changed.

https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates

If you look at the drug overdose numbers in this country it mirrors the pedestrian fatality numbers.


This was a study done where I trained after I left. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7884480/

74% of pedestrians and bicyclists struck had a positive drug or ETOH screen.

I'm on the receiving end of those that get struck by a car and very few of them are sober normal people.

Most people don't get struck by cars because they don't walk in front of a moving car, simple as that. Even if the walk symbol is green/white, the vast majority of people still look and don't step in front of moving traffic and hope that they will stop.

People who get struck by cars are the ones that walk in front of cars.  We should be looking at why more people are walking in front of cars, rather than focusing on why cars aren't stopping.  All the high visability jackets and safety mandates won't help when someone stumbles out 3 feet in front of a car moving at 45mph.

US drug use has indeed skyrocketed since 2009, but again, if that were a/the primary cause, that would have showed up during daytime fatalities too, and the article's implicit point is it didn't as apparently no cause explains the dramatic nighttime-only increase.

[Eye of the Tiger]

US drug use has indeed skyrocketed since 2009, but again, if that were a/the primary cause, that would have showed up during daytime fatalities too, and the article's implicit point is it didn't as apparently no cause explains the dramatic nighttime-only increase.

They only do drugs at night. Or, they do more drugs at night.

[AutobahnSHO]

We could solve this by issuing high-visibility clothing to the homeless.

Many of the homeless around here are prior military- which had an ingrained "PT belt" (physical training) mentality for a long long time. I've seen quite a few homeless people wear reflective vests when they're out.

[Raza]

Without reading the article (paywall), I think that insufficient dimming of modern infotainment screens is at least partly to blame. I remember as far back as 10-12 years ago, seeing completely dark cabins, save for the driver's face, nearly fully illuminated by their GPS or infotainment screen. Now, since plug-in GPS systems are largely a thing of the past, they've been replaced by phones. And people place their mounts right in front of their faces, which messes with their night vision and their eyeline.