Are people ACTUALLY buying Electric cars?

Started by 2o6, April 26, 2018, 01:17:08 AM

2o6

Tesla's future to many people looks dubious. The Bolt, Leaf, and others sell in OK numbers, but they're not challenging the Camry and Accord.


Dumb eco-weenies like to say that Tesla is changing the automotive landscape, but we can't forget that the Model 3 and Model S are premium products. $45K USD is a lot of money for someone to shell out for a thing. Especially if you're used to buying cars at around 20K....


I live in an apartment, and I don't see any way where I could sell my car and live, or buy an EV and somehow find a space to charge. And with this being the USA, I don't see the government offering incentives for landlords to install or offer charging spaces.....aside from very fringe areas like SF or the PNW.


Everyone is saying the market is pushing to electric cars; aside from the electric car market growing and adding a few new players and a few extra sales, I don't see this "big push".



Same with autonomous driving, to be honest.

Lebowski

I don't see it either, and can't see myself owning one. I think both EV and autonomous are over hyped.

Soup DeVille

Go to the upper west coast and your opinion might change.

Yes, its still a small percentage; but it certainly is a lot more than it was four years ago.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

12,000 RPM

The aparment conundrum is a real issue for EVs. I don't think it would take much to make them viable
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

giant_mtb

It'll be like the olden days...fuckin hitch posts for EVs everywhere. Ugh.

Lebowski

Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 05:02:19 AM

Go to the upper west coast and your opinion might change.

Yes, its still a small percentage; but it certainly is a lot more than it was four years ago.


Sure, but IMO that's more image and perceived status driven (Tesla brand, w coast "green" circle jerk) than economics. To make a rational case for EVs prices have to come way down and range has to go up ... nobody buys a $100k Tesla to save a hundred bucks a month on gas.

Soup DeVille

Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 07:18:16 AM
Sure, but IMO that's more image and perceived status driven (Tesla brand, w coast "green" circle jerk) than economics. To make a rational case for EVs prices have to come way down and range has to go up ... nobody buys a $100k Tesla to save a hundred bucks a month on gas.

For the majority of cars sold, its hard to make a rational case.  But, the range issue is largely overblown at this point
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

Lebowski

Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 07:22:06 AM
For the majority of cars sold, its hard to make a rational case.  But, the range issue is largely overblown at this point

For the majority of luxury cars, and certainly cars in the model S price range, sure.  As 206 said in his OP, if EVs are to challenge the Camry, Accord, Civic, CR-V, Escape etc they have a ways to go from a practical and economic POV.

Soup DeVille

Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 07:34:25 AM
For the majority of luxury cars, and certainly cars in the model S price range, sure.  As 206 said in his OP, if EVs are to challenge the Camry, Accord, Civic, CR-V, Escape etc they have a ways to go from a practical and economic POV.

There's a big gulf between the BMW 7-series/Model S level and the Corrola/Camry world, and while I agree with 206, there's a lot of middle ground there that could be EV territory in the next few years.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

12,000 RPM

I don't know that there's a lot of cost-conscious volume in that space.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

AutobahnSHO

I don't think autonomous cars are overblown at all- in 20yrs that will be the norm.

And with that, EVs become more viable. Someone in an apartment that can't afford a car can get the new&improved Uber (autonomous, EV) whenever they want.

Endgame is rich people own their own, most people just scan a card and pay per ride. And in the wild wild west, there might be rare self-driven gasoline vehicles on the ranches or farms, but most cars even there will be autonomous gas burners.
Will

12,000 RPM

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on April 26, 2018, 08:17:24 AM
I don't think autonomous cars are overblown at all- in 20yrs that will be the norm.
No way
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

giant_mtb

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on April 26, 2018, 08:17:24 AM
in 20yrs that will be the norm.

And in the wild wild west, there might be rare self-driven gasoline vehicles on the ranches or farms, but most cars even there will be autonomous gas burners.

Not a chance.  People in the "wild wild west" want nothing to do with autonomous vehicles. 

Lebowski

I'm highly dubious of this autonomous uber being the norm idea, outside major cities.

Tave

Although you wouldn't be able to tell from the Tesla thread, the Model 3 will likely be the first- or second-best selling entry lux sedan for the month of April. It's a two-way race between the BMW 2/3/4 series and Tesla. If you break down BMWs stable into the separate models, Tesla will grab the top spot even without increasing their production volume past the early-April marks.
As I write, highly civilized human beings are flying overhead, trying to kill me.

Quote from: thecarnut on March 16, 2008, 10:33:43 AM
Depending on price, that could be a good deal.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 08:34:28 AM
I'm highly dubious of this autonomous uber being the norm idea, outside major cities.
Cities generally have their own transportation systems. Autonomous Ubers will thrive in the space between fully rural and fully urban.

I was working on the G Monday and needed to run to Harbor Freight for a tool.... wound up getting an Uber. Would have been great if it were automated (and cheaper). Car ownership is a real burden on my in laws... grandma would be much better off with autonomous Uber. Lots of small local trips that are too expensive for cabs but out of the range of our (shitty) public transportation.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

2o6

Quote from: Tave on April 26, 2018, 08:42:27 AM
Although you wouldn't be able to tell from the Tesla thread, the Model 3 will likely be the first- or second-best selling entry lux sedan for the month of April. It's a two-way race between the BMW 2/3/4 series and Tesla. If you break down BMWs stable into the separate models, Tesla will grab the top spot even without increasing their production volume past the early-April marks.


Tesla has a unique hype about them. I don't think they're a good representation of the market as a whole.

Laconian

Electric cars will relentlessly get better until they become a total no brainer. The investment into electric car and battery R&D is accelerating fast. Shit's exponential there. By contrast ICE development is basically plateaued, with big investments yielding only marginal single digit gains. Can't get around the fundamental fact that most of gasoline energy is lost as heat.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

2o6

Ubering is expensive.


If I were to use Uber like I used my car, it would be 2-3x my car payment, but I wouldn't even have a thing to show for it.

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 11:13:56 AM

Tesla has a unique hype about them. I don't think they're a good representation of the market as a whole.

+1

Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 02:23:04 PM
Ubering is expensive.


If I were to use Uber like I used my car, it would be 2-3x my car payment, but I wouldn't even have a thing to show for it.

Of course it depends on how it's used, and once people don't have to drive the car, the price will cut at least in half.
Will

Speed_Racer

I see quite a few where I work, but the complex has free charge ports for EVs. That being the case, I'd consider one as a commuter but otherwise no because of my apartment living.

giant_mtb

There has to be an infrastructure overhaul/improvement to meet the demand of mass users of EVs, ie, a shitload of charging stations.  It's hardly the norm in the cities where it's big, and has barely scratched the surface of suburbia as far as mass use goes.  Open charging stations are going to be the new free parking spot some day, though, once parking meters and charge stations are the same thing.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Laconian on April 26, 2018, 11:16:27 AM
Electric cars will relentlessly get better until they become a total no brainer. The investment into electric car and battery R&D is accelerating fast. Shit's exponential there. By contrast ICE development is basically plateaued, with big investments yielding only marginal single digit gains. Can't get around the fundamental fact that most of gasoline energy is lost as heat.
There is still a shitload of potential left. The potential efficiency of a gas engine is like 80%. We are nowhere near that, and tech like HCCI can get us a good bit closer. Plus while EV tech has a lot of potential, from a source energy perspective if they're being charged by natural gas plants (or worse) it's kind of irrelevant.

The main hurdle for ICE efficiency is how much are we willing to spend (and sacrifice) to achieve that efficiency? I imagine an engine generator running at a single speed could probably get a good bit of the way there, but that's a lot of cost.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Soup DeVille

Quote from: giant_mtb on April 26, 2018, 05:36:17 PM
There has to be an infrastructure overhaul/improvement to meet the demand of mass users of EVs, ie, a shitload of charging stations.  It's hardly the norm in the cities where it's big, and has barely scratched the surface of suburbia as far as mass use goes.  Open charging stations are going to be the new free parking spot some day, though, once parking meters and charge stations are the same thing.

Charging stations are an end user issue; the real problem is producing and distributing that power in the first place. Rolling blackout/ ev central California will be the first to show how deep that problem can go.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

Soup DeVille

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 06:03:20 PM
There is still a shitload of potential left. The potential efficiency of a gas engine is like 80%. We are nowhere near that, and tech like HCCI can get us a good bit closer. Plus while EV tech has a lot of potential, from a source energy perspective if they're being charged by natural gas plants (or worse) it's kind of irrelevant.

The main hurdle for ICE efficiency is how much are we willing to spend (and sacrifice) to achieve that efficiency? I imagine an engine generator running at a single speed could probably get a good bit of the way there, but that's a lot of cost.

No, the potential theoretical efficiency of a gas engine is around 36%.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

giant_mtb

Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 06:16:48 PM
Charging stations are an end user issue; the real problem is producing and distributing that power in the first place. Rolling blackout/ ev central California will be the first to show how deep that problem can go.

Indeed. I was thinking about that today actually.  Can our power grid even handle mass EV charging?  Certainly not in its current state.

Laconian

Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 06:18:15 PM
No, the potential theoretical efficiency of a gas engine is around 36%.

I thought Sporty's numbers smelled optimistic.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

Soup DeVille

Quote from: giant_mtb on April 26, 2018, 06:27:22 PM
Indeed. I was thinking about that today actually.  Can our power grid even handle mass EV charging?  Certainly not in its current state.

If the majority is done on off-peak hours, then yes it can; up to a point. After that, no and it will take years to add that capacity.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

giant_mtb

Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 06:57:40 PM
If the majority is done on off-peak hours, then yes it can; up to a point. After that, no and it will take years to add that capacity.

I feel like EV charging when people get to/home from work will create its own peak hours, which I doubt the current grid can handle.

Soup DeVille

Quote from: Laconian on April 26, 2018, 06:43:16 PM
I thought Sporty's numbers smelled optimistic.

For a practical engine, absolutely.

Mathematically, the numbers are more like 65% (my memory rounds numbers), but that's a carnot cycle engine (we don't know how to build them at all), running compression ratios of around 30:1 in an ideal state of tune (theoretically the exhaust temp at this point is exactly ambient)

Low speed diesel engines are more efficient at around 50%, but do so primarily by keeping pumping losses down and operating speeds around 60 RPM
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator