Quote from: Morris Minor on December 05, 2018, 12:12:04 PM
One thing, touched on in the Kona Electric review, was questioning the wisdom of putting the charge port just above the front bumper - a vulnerable location. I know they do this on many EVs, e.g. Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf, but a relatively light bumper thumper could easily put your car on the disabled list.

Yeah, shoulder stay on the fender like a gasoline filler door.

Quote from: Galaxy on December 04, 2018, 10:36:23 PM

How much of the cost drop is at the hands of artificial government intervention/distortion? My guess is at least 50%.

Quote from: GoCougs on December 05, 2018, 02:44:20 PM
How much of the cost drop is at the hands of artificial government intervention/distortion? My guess is at least 50%.

The internet you are bitching about govt intervention on was accelerated by govt intervention. Relax

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on December 05, 2018, 03:36:19 PM
The internet you are bitching about govt intervention on was accelerated by govt intervention. Relax

Quote from: GoCougs on December 05, 2018, 02:44:20 PM
How much of the cost drop is at the hands of artificial government intervention/distortion? My guess is at least 50%.

https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/09/cv-factsheets-ev-incentives.pdf

It's not explicitly stated, but it sounds like the data used to generate that chart are the true manufacturing costs independent of government incentives. They do note that the reduction in cost is mostly due to economies of scale, which have been heavily influenced by incentives, and that incentives are an important part of continuing the trend so that EVs can reach a point where they're truly equal to ICE vehicles (ICEVs? If it's not a thing, I'm making it one) without incentives.

I didn't dig into the sources beyond the PDF above to confirm that the data is independent of government incentives, but feel free to do so and prove me wrong.

https://youtu.be/mfIjMxyg00o

I think an AWD EV with winter tires would be a beeeeeeast and tons of fun in the winter.  I like dancing around corners with Taco in RWD, but the A4 was a different kind of fun with AWD 'cause you really had to drive it aggressively to whip it around.  Granted, I could put Taco in 4WD, but it's not quite the same. lol

Quote from: r0tor on December 09, 2018, 08:23:04 AM
https://youtu.be/mfIjMxyg00o

It's a nice coar.
So it seems the measure of an EV is miles/kWh, or kWh/100 miles.
The MPGe thing seems a bit meaningless.

Quote from: Morris Minor on December 09, 2018, 01:02:59 PM
It's a nice coar.
So it seems the measure of an EV is the kWh/mile, or kWh/100 miles.
The MPGe thing seems a bit meaningless.

MPGe is an interesting stat from an environmental POV, but yes, not much utility.

Interesting about the Rivian batteries. 400miles of range is finally decent. The technology is screaming forward, too- cooling etc...

https://www.engadget.com/2018/12/11/rivian-building-longest-lasting-batteries-ev/

Just read Dan Neil's (somewhat overwrought) review of the Hyundai Kona Electric in the WSJ. One comment caught my attention though; he thinks the future resale value of an ICE bought new today is going to be pretty low. Like trying to sell a used flip phone when everyone wants smartphones.

I think it will be the other way around, as it currently is. As long as future EVs promise to be better than current ones, current EVs will (and do) depreciate like milk. So that's one hurdle.

The batteries in a Kona cost about $13K alone. That's about what the average American spent on gas over the last 8 or so years. And cars will only continue to get more efficient, making the payback tougher.

I love and want EVs, but on a pure, unsubsidized financial basis... tough sell. And assuming electricity is made with fossil fuels, the incremental carbon savings against the battery costs is insane. You put a 1kWh battery + a simple gas engine together, you're about halfway to where a mainstream manufacturer's BEV is (Tesla is admittedly on another level with efficiency). So I'm cautiously excited.

Hybrids were to change everything, and it didn't happen, and even what did happen, it's pretty much only Toyota hybrids. Other EVs that aren't a Tesla, but are actually just as good and cheaper (Chevy Bolt), are barely a sales footnote, akin to other hybrids that aren't Toyotas. EVs will have to be materially cheaper to both purchase and operate to gain any significant market share. There is no path there, as the vast majority of WtP would be just as well served in stripper Civics, Camcords and Rangers. Enter catastrophic levels of government intervention to make it so. Might happen, but the aforementioned market forces are very strong.

Quote from: GoCougs on December 27, 2018, 08:26:15 PM
Hybrids were to change everything, and it didn't happen, and even what did happen, it's pretty much only Toyota hybrids. Other EVs that aren't a Tesla, but are actually just as good and cheaper (Chevy Bolt), are barely a sales footnote, akin to other hybrids that aren't Toyotas. EVs will have to be materially cheaper to both purchase and operate to gain any significant market share. There is no path there, as the vast majority of WtP would be just as well served in stripper Civics, Camcords and Rangers. Enter catastrophic levels of government intervention to make it so. Might happen, but the aforementioned market forces are very strong.

Hybrids are very complex. EVs, at least fundamentally, are not. So EVs may have an easier time gaining widespread acceptance. Their main headwind is cheap gasoline. Petrol is so cheap now it's not worth stealing.

Maybe the issue is that manufacturers are stuck making EVs like all their other ICE cars.  One reason Tesla has an advantage.

For instance,
1- the usual configuration putting the fuel tank under rear passenger seat. Batteries could go anywhere instead, you could free up that space and/or put more batteries there.
2- frame reinforcements in front for engine could be modified/removed (keeping crash protection of course)
3- no worries about exhaust routing
4- different transmission engineering

etc...

Seems the mainstreamers work to change their existing designs to accommodate EV instead of designing an all EV car.

Plus there's just bad marketing. Does the average car buyer even know what a Volt is/was???   They could have sold those just as well as Priuses with the right strategy.

Quote from: Morris Minor on December 28, 2018, 05:48:30 AM
Hybrids are very complex. EVs, at least fundamentally, are not. So EVs may have an easier time gaining widespread acceptance. Their main headwind is cheap gasoline. Petrol is so cheap now it's not worth stealing.

Hybrids are complex to parse out in operation, but for the end user they are much simpler than EVs, which is what matters in the end. Non-conventional propulsion is in a lull now because gas is dirt cheap... but that's not a given. Better to be ready than be FCA....

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 28, 2018, 10:06:51 AM
Maybe the issue is that manufacturers are stuck making EVs like all their other ICE cars.   One reason Tesla has an advantage.

For instance,
1- the usual configuration putting the fuel tank under rear passenger seat. Batteries could go anywhere instead, you could free up that space and/or put more batteries there.
2- frame reinforcements in front for engine could be modified/removed (keeping crash protection of course)
3- no worries about exhaust routing
4- different transmission engineering

etc...

Seems the mainstreamers work to change their existing designs to accommodate EV instead of designing an all EV car.

Plus there's just bad marketing. Does the average car buyer even know what a Volt is/was???   They could have sold those just as well as Priuses with the right strategy.

What???  You're acting like OEMs can't seem to wrap their head around the idea that you can place batteries where the fuel tank goes.  None of what you wrote is revolutionary.

Of course they can do all this.  They can make bespoke platforms for battery powered vehicles.  They reason they're not doing it is because it hasn't been cost effective.  This is proven by Tesla's balance sheet.

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on December 28, 2018, 12:39:07 PM
Hybrids are complex to parse out in operation, but for the end user they are much simpler than EVs, which is what matters in the end. Non-conventional propulsion is in a lull now because gas is dirt cheap... but that's not a given. Better to be ready than be FCA....

Hybrids were only ever a stop-gap measure until either hydrogen fuel cells became practical or batteries became acceptably efficient.  The future is with EVs of some stripe with IC fading out over time and relegated to museums and private collections.

Quote from: Morris Minor on December 28, 2018, 05:48:30 AM
Hybrids are very complex. EVs, at least fundamentally, are not. So EVs may have an easier time gaining widespread acceptance. Their main headwind is cheap gasoline. Petrol is so cheap now it's not worth stealing.

I'm not sure though that hybrid complexity has been an issue - Toyota hybrids, esp. the Prius, are tops when it comes to reliability.

The Bolt phenomenon, as with hybrids that aren't Toyotas, is IMO the likely the boilerplate of the future of EVs - just as good, even cheaper, but nobody really buys it.

The future of EVs IMO looks to the same as the past for EVs - for decades EVs have been in use as commuter trains, city buses, fork lifts, golf carts, etc. and that works well for specific situations - quieter, no localized air pollution, no funny business with filling a gas tank. But en masse? Left to its own devices there is no current path for widespread EV adoption.

A dealer in St Pete has lightly used 2018 Volts (1k-2k miles) for $17k-$21k.  Been trying to convince my mom to buy one.  She could probably go a whole month on a charge.

Quote from: 68_427 on December 28, 2018, 02:54:25 PM
A dealer in St Pete has lightly used 2018 Volts (1k-2k miles) for $17k-$21k.  Been trying to convince my mom to buy one.  She could probably go a whole month on a charge.

I just did a quick search - there's a brand new one not too far from me for $29,999... and is eligible for $12.5k of tax incentives.

Quote from: MrH on December 28, 2018, 12:51:51 PM
What???  You're acting like OEMs can't seem to wrap their head around the idea that you can place batteries where the fuel tank goes.  None of what you wrote is revolutionary.

Of course they can do all this.  They can make bespoke platforms for battery powered vehicles.  They reason they're not doing it is because it hasn't been cost effective.  This is proven by Tesla's balance sheet.

I think that crazy looking new EV truck 'could' do it better.

Most OEMs really do like to improve on existing design rather than reinvent.

I think if anything kills the ICE it will be regulations coupled with market demands. My car has a huge engine recall. Honda's 1.5T has a huge recall. Just watched a video about widespread Ecoboost reliability issues. Manufacturers are getting squeezed harder by fuel economy/emissions regs and customer demands. Something has to change.

I'd wager an equally powerful NA V6 in my car would burn the same amount of gas. But regulations don't work that way. BEVs are a lot simpler in that regard... but again, a hybrid provides the easiest way forward.

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 28, 2018, 08:21:55 PM
I think that crazy looking new EV truck 'could' do it better.

Most OEMs really do like to improve on existing design rather than reinvent.

What is there to reinvent, though, when it really comes down to it?  Carriages before automobiles were 4-wheeled boxes on wheels.  Cars today are still boxes on four wheels.  What is there to improve with the basic concept of a box with seats on wheels that would require some "reinvention" of what the automobile essentially is...?

Quote from: giant_mtb on December 29, 2018, 07:51:15 PM
What is there to reinvent, though, when it really comes down to it?  Carriages before automobiles were 4-wheeled boxes on wheels.  Cars today are still boxes on four wheels.  What is there to improve with the basic concept of a box with seats on wheels that would require some "reinvention" of what the automobile essentially is...?

The weight and materials, refinement etc...

I mean sure we've got an Apex in design but somehow cars still get better every year.

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 28, 2018, 08:21:55 PM
I think that crazy looking new EV truck 'could' do it better.

Most OEMs really do like to improve on existing design rather than reinvent.

To your point. This is the company Morris Jr works for.
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/12/22/bay-area-startup-zoox-approval-autonomous-vehicle-passenger-service/

Quote from: Morris Minor on December 30, 2018, 05:30:30 AM
To your point. This is the company Morris Jr works for.
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/12/22/bay-area-startup-zoox-approval-autonomous-vehicle-passenger-service/

That ATV looks like it has 4wd steering.  Weird bubbly green thing is weird (at the 2:00 mark).

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 29, 2018, 07:58:23 PM
The weight and materials, refinement etc...

I mean sure we've got an Apex in design but somehow cars still get better every year.

Er, so, improving on existing design...not reinventing.

Quote from: Morris Minor on December 30, 2018, 05:30:30 AM
To your point. This is the company Morris Jr works for.
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/12/22/bay-area-startup-zoox-approval-autonomous-vehicle-passenger-service/

That looks sweet, but it sounds like the ground-up engineering is more for the autonomous functionality than because it's an EV.

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 30, 2018, 06:16:36 AM
That ATV looks like it has 4wd steering.  Weird bubbly green thing is weird (at the 2:00 mark).

I'll ask him what the bottle of bubbling green slime is. Probably just some Muskeque whimsy.