Car Chat

[MX793]

That sucks. It's been nice enough in Utah for me to get my motorcycle out and race the El Camino hard enough to break it

I think we stopped trying to schedule April races.  And with the Rona, not sure we'll have much of a racing season at all.

[CaminoRacer]

At least I have time to fix my car without missing events

[r0tor]

I at least got the Giulia out in the nice weather today to get some food... I thought about the RX8 but then went meh

I really have to think about what I want to do with that thing. It's fun to bomb down back roads but I rarely have time to do it anymore and the Alfa is 8/10 or 9/10 as fun anyway

[FoMoJo]

There are like ZERO Camaros at my local Chevy dealerships. At least on their websites. Really odd.

I thought they stopped making them.

[giant_mtb]

So I just found out that 0W-16 motor oil is a thing. 

"SAE 0W-16 is a low-viscosity oil grade that has recently entered the United States for the first time with the introduction of the 2018 Toyota Camry 2.5L Four-Cylinder model and the 2018 Honda Fit."

[MX793]

So I just found out that 0W-16 motor oil is a thing. 

"SAE 0W-16 is a low-viscosity oil grade that has recently entered the United States for the first time with the introduction of the 2018 Toyota Camry 2.5L Four-Cylinder model and the 2018 Honda Fit."

Must be how Toyota fixed the sludging problem.  Just run thinner oil.

[giant_mtb]

Must be how Toyota fixed the sludging problem.  Just run thinner oil.

Kind of surprising that the difference between 0-15 and 0-16 was significant enough to require its entirely own production and bottling.

[MX793]

Kind of surprising that the difference between 0-15 and 0-16 was significant enough to require its entirely own production and bottling.

The German auto companies all create and maintain their own oil standards rather than just using an SAE, DIN, ISO  or other nationally or internationally recognized standard.

[giant_mtb]

The German auto companies all create and maintain their own oil standards rather than just using an SAE, DIN, ISO  or other nationally or internationally recognized standard.

Even the oil for German cars is marketed with multiples of 5. 0-15, 0-20, etc.  I've never seen an oil as specific as 16 before which is why it caught my eye.

[MX793]

Even the oil for German cars is marketed with multiples of 5. 0-15, 0-20, etc.  I've never seen an oil as specific as 16 before which is why it caught my eye.

I lump it all in the same sort of weirdness.  Why develop a 0-16 when 0-15 exists?  My guess is they are really sharpening the design pencil and found 0-15 just a bit too thin to meet their engine life needs and 0-20 too thick to meet their fuel economy and efficiency targets.

A company maintaining their own proprietary oil specification when there are plenty of widely used industry standards is just a waste of money.  Those BMW or VW oil standards actually align with existing standards from SAE and the like, so why bother?  Just use an SAE or DIN standard.

[Laconian]

My 87 year old neighbor wishes he bought a stick shift WRX instead of his Outback. He used to drive an MGB and an Alfa 124. I pleaded that he wear a mask when he shops, because he's too cool to die.

[Eye of the Tiger]

My 87 year old neighbor wishes he bought a stick shift WRX instead of his Outback. He used to drive an MGB and an Alfa 124. I pleaded that he wear a mask when he shops, because he's too cool to die.

Cool guy. See if they'll give him one of those new 96 month car loans.

[shp4man]

My 87 year old neighbor wishes he bought a stick shift WRX instead of his Outback. He used to drive an MGB and an Alfa 124. I pleaded that he wear a mask when he shops, because he's too cool to die.

I'm right there with him. We'll, not 87, but ......

[veeman]

I'm surprised there are not better lease deals out there right now.  My Camry three year lease is finishing up in a month on a three year lease and the lease deal I got 3 years ago is a bit better than what is advertised now.  Currently they're advertising in my area $189/month with $2999 down which is pretty good but when I did it 3 years ago it was a bit better.  Just googling there are some good lease deals in general out there but nothing really stellar on a midsize car or midsize SUV.  With sales in the dumps I'm surprised automakers are not being more aggressive just to move inventory.   

[Laconian]

I'm surprised there are not better lease deals out there right now.  My Camry three year lease is finishing up in a month on a three year lease and the lease deal I got 3 years ago is a bit better than what is advertised now.  Currently they're advertising in my area $189/month with $2999 down which is pretty good but when I did it 3 years ago it was a bit better.  Just googling there are some good lease deals in general out there but nothing really stellar on a midsize car or midsize SUV.  With sales in the dumps I'm surprised automakers are not being more aggressive just to move inventory.   

I bet they'll get more desperate in the weeks leading up to Q2 reporting.

[MX793]

I'm surprised there are not better lease deals out there right now.  My Camry three year lease is finishing up in a month on a three year lease and the lease deal I got 3 years ago is a bit better than what is advertised now.  Currently they're advertising in my area $189/month with $2999 down which is pretty good but when I did it 3 years ago it was a bit better.  Just googling there are some good lease deals in general out there but nothing really stellar on a midsize car or midsize SUV.  With sales in the dumps I'm surprised automakers are not being more aggressive just to move inventory.   

Lease deals are based heavily on residuals.  Forecast may be showing depressed resale values going forward, which means larger lease payments.  I expect any deals right now will be for buyers, not lessees.

[veeman]

Lease deals are based heavily on residuals.  Forecast may be showing depressed resale values going forward, which means larger lease payments.  I expect any deals right now will be for buyers, not lessees.

Good point.  There are a bunch of 0% apr 5 year finance deals available; I haven't seen that since the last recession. Interesting that they're maybe predicting depressed values 3 years from now. 

[MX793]

Good point.  There are a bunch of 0% apr 5 year finance deals available; I haven't seen that since the last recession. Interesting that they're maybe predicting depressed values 3 years from now. 

The notion of depressed values is totally speculation on my part.  No idea why lease rates might be higher than a few years ago.  But the rates are based on projected future resale value, and clearly someone thinks that resale will either be lower or hold steady and thus rates aren't any lower than in the past.  Today's lease rates and estimated residuals 3 years from now might be based on today's resale values.

[FoMoJo]

Kind of interesting.  Something else for F1 drivers to fiddle with while trying to keep the car on the track.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxKhi6Qsrog&feature=emb_title

As it's only legal for 2020, it may never be really tested.

[Eye of the Tiger]

Kind of interesting.  Something else for F1 drivers to fiddle with while trying to keep the car on the track.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxKhi6Qsrog&feature=emb_title

As it's only legal for 2020, it may never be really tested.

Why doesn't the telescopic steering wheel on my Fiesta also adjust toe angle on the fly? I want DAS in my car!

[CaminoRacer]

Might be a tidal wave of good deals coming

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/fear-of-an-impending-car-price-collapse-grips-the-auto-industry?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[Speed_Racer]

Might be a tidal wave of good deals coming

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/fear-of-an-impending-car-price-collapse-grips-the-auto-industry?utm_source=pocket-newtab

No complaints here!

[CaminoRacer]

I think I might try to low ball some dealers on a Miata, Camaro 1LE, or a Yamaha MT09 near the end of summer.

[MrH]

Might be a tidal wave of good deals coming

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/fear-of-an-impending-car-price-collapse-grips-the-auto-industry?utm_source=pocket-newtab

It'll be interesting.  I haven't seen any great deals yet really.  Usually you see great new car deals when supply is humming and demand drops substantially.  Do that long enough, and eventually pushes the whole used car market down too.  But everything is just frozen.  It's really different than anything we've seen before.

[CaminoRacer]

It'll be interesting.  I haven't seen any great deals yet really.  Usually you see great new car deals when supply is humming and demand drops substantially.  Do that long enough, and eventually pushes the whole used car market down too.  But everything is just frozen.  It's really different than anything we've seen before.

Yeah, since new production is frozen nothing is happening on the new car side. Sounds like the used car side is gonna be flooded though. New car deals might be 6-12 months away.

[MX793]

Yeah, since new production is frozen nothing is happening on the new car side. Sounds like the used car side is gonna be flooded though. New car deals might be 6-12 months away.

Will the used car supply side really get flooded, though?  If people aren't buying new, they won't be trading in used.  People who normally buy used who already have a working vehicle are likely to just stick with what they have rather than trade up.  Or, if they do trade up, they're exchanging an older used car for a newer one.  The only supply side increase in used cars I could see are people selling off secondary, leisure vehicles because they've lost their income and need cash or can't afford the payments.

[CaminoRacer]

Will the used car supply side really get flooded, though?  If people aren't buying new, they won't be trading in used.  People who normally buy used who already have a working vehicle are likely to just stick with what they have rather than trade up.  Or, if they do trade up, they're exchanging an older used car for a newer one.  The only supply side increase in used cars I could see are people selling off secondary, leisure vehicles because they've lost their income and need cash or can't afford the payments.

Good point. Sounds like rental car companies want to dump a lot of inventory too. And finished leases if they can't convince the leasee to extend it?

The flood of auction vehicles right now are from right before the crash and will probably take a while to clear out.

[FoMoJo]

Looking for a car now.  Lease on the Discovery expires on June 2nd.  Thinking of used a couple of years old.

[MX793]

Good point. Sounds like rental car companies want to dump a lot of inventory too. And finished leases if they can't convince the leasee to extend it?

The flood of auction vehicles right now are from right before the crash and will probably take a while to clear out.

Will the rental fleets even dump them?  I can't imagine there's much demand for rentals right now, so the cars aren't accumulating any mileage or wear & tear.  And the rental fleets aren't making any income.  And I assume asset depreciation is something the rental fleets can write off each year anyway, so hanging onto the cars another year or so and the associated age depreciation probably isn't a huge consideration.

Even if the rental fleets do operate "business as usual" and refresh their fleet as they normally would, that same influx of used cars would be the same as any other time.  It wouldn't result in an increase in supply compared to what we had before the pandemic.  Same with lessees.  They were trading in their cars at the same clip before the pandemic, so that's a net zero supply side gain.  That assumes lessees aren't offered a deferment to extend their leases and many of them opt to do so until after the pandemic.

All in, I think we'll see a reduction in supply of used vehicles, but probably an even bigger reduction in used vehicle demand.  So from that standpoint, I suppose you could consider it effectively the same as if the used market saw an influx in supply with no change in demand.

[MrH]

Good point. Sounds like rental car companies want to dump a lot of inventory too. And finished leases if they can't convince the leasee to extend it?

The flood of auction vehicles right now are from right before the crash and will probably take a while to clear out.

Those people still need cars though?  It's going to be net neutral.

I think we're just going to see a big slow down on both demand and supply.  Plants will reduce shifts.  I don't see massive deals coming for used or new cars sadly.  There's a perfectly optioned 2020 ND2 Miata sitting at a nearby dealer.  If I could get 15% off MSRP, I'd pull the trigger, but the best deals going now is only 5-7% off MSRP.