Tesla

[r0tor]

All this Tesla production bashing and nobody here has a clue as to what it actually looks like, what the plans were for shift schedule, or who/what is causing the bottlenecks

[Soup DeVille]

All this Tesla production bashing and nobody here has a clue as to what it actually looks like, what the plans were for shift schedule, or who/what is causing the bottlenecks

In the short clips I've seen, I've seen the body/chassis marriage being done in a stationary cell, with fixed tooling jigs, when most manufacturers are doing the marriage on the fly on a moving line. I've heard Musk bemoan the complex network of conveyors in the plant, when the main move in the industry is away from conveyors and towards automated skucks (low speed AGVs that carry the vehicle in whatever state its in at the moment), which is a far more flexible arrangement.

Then there is the stuff everyone sees; namely the continual production shortages and stoppages. Anybody can see the frantic nature of that email Musk sent, and nothing there is reassuring.

No, its true none of us really know exactly what's going on, but the signs are there that things are going badly.

[MrH]

All this Tesla production bashing and nobody here has a clue as to what it actually looks like, what the plans were for shift schedule, or who/what is causing the bottlenecks

I'm very familiar with them.  This isn't new to me.

[AutobahnSHO]

All this Tesla production bashing and nobody here has a clue as to what it actually looks like, what the plans were for shift schedule, or who/what is causing the bottlenecks

-not good enough (or they would be meeting targets)
-who knows what the schedule will be (and the Spin hasn't even been targeting that)
-bad management from trying to be "New and Improved!" better than the world leaders without being even to match those world leaders' "Old and unimproved." first.

 

[r0tor]

-not good enough (or they would be meeting targets)
-who knows what the schedule will be (and the Spin hasn't even been targeting that)
-bad management from trying to be "New and Improved!" better than the world leaders without being even to match those world leaders' "Old and unimproved." first.

 

- You don't know what is causing the delays.  It could be production line, although It's probably battery related as this has been mentioned.
-  One individual here is claiming a 24x7 schedule was never invisioned... Like he knows better
-. This can't be determined until the above are determined

[AutobahnSHO]

- You don't know what is causing the delays.  It could be production line, although It's probably battery related as this has been mentioned.
-  One individual here is claiming a 24x7 schedule was never invisioned... Like he knows better
-. This can't be determined until the above are determined

-I have no idea, I don't run the company. Tesla is who can't keep up with their own goals.

[Laconian]

However on May 25 the new EU General Data Protection Regulation comes into force, which would punish something like the Cambridge Analytical situation with a fine of 4% of world wide turnover.

This will be ruinous for small companies that lack the engineering resources needed to adapt their implementations to be GPDR compliant, and the legal resources for responding to ongoing GPDR requests.

It's not inconceivable to think of bad actors using the GPDR as a denial of service attack against their competitors. That 4% fine is an awfully big stick.

[MrH]

All this Tesla production bashing and nobody here has a clue as to what it actually looks like, what the plans were for shift schedule, or who/what is causing the bottlenecks

It doesn't matter.  We know what the production rate was supposed to be.  They revise it down constantly and still can't hit that.  There's no way the original plan called for 24/7 to hit 5,000 cars a week.  This is still just a fraction of the rate they were planning on achieving.  Plan and simple:  They have huge constraints (yes, more than one) that they can't resolve quickly enough so their solution is to run more shifts to try to increase output.  This will increase their cost.

[SJ_GTI]

This will be ruinous for small companies that lack the engineering resources needed to adapt their implementations to be GPDR compliant, and the legal resources for responding to ongoing GPDR requests.

It's not inconceivable to think of bad actors using the GPDR as a denial of service attack against their competitors. That 4% fine is an awfully big stick.

FWIW when I first read about it my takeaway was that this is essentially making the existing players monopolies. A fine that massive is a huge barrier to entry.

[CaminoRacer]

I do not want a Model 3 built by the 3rd shift.

[SJ_GTI]

Not sure what I am missing with the knock against 24/7 shifts. That is the most efficient way to use a given amount of machinery. Our two main production facilities are both 24/7. The second largest will go down during holidays (demand permitting) but the largest is 24/7 and 365 days a year. It has been in continuous operation since the 80's and, outside of some catastrophe, should remain in continuous operation for decades to come.

We have two smaller facilities that we flex up and down with demand, but even those run 24/5. (with occasional Saturdays thrown in). Running one or two shifts seems horribly inefficient to me. If you are only running 2 shifts 5 days a week you are only utilizing about half the capacity.

[Soup DeVille]

I do not want a Model 3 built by the 3rd shift.

In most cases those old sayings, like "never buy a car made on a Friday afternoon," are irrelevant anymore. Production and quality controls make differences due to human error pretty insignificant.

[Soup DeVille]

Not sure what I am missing with the knock against 24/7 shifts. That is the most efficient way to use a given amount of machinery. Our two main production facilities are both 24/7. The second largest will go down during holidays (demand permitting) but the largest is 24/7 and 365 days a year. It has been in continuous operation since the 80's and, outside of some catastrophe, should remain in continuous operation for decades to come.

We have two smaller facilities that we flex up and down with demand, but even those run 24/5. (with occasional Saturdays thrown in). Running one or two shifts seems horribly inefficient to me. If you are only running 2 shifts 5 days a week you are only utilizing about half the capacity.

You're talking about glass production, right?  That's nearly always the case for any continuous process; especially those that require heat and lines which are built around a primary machine like a blowmolder.

Assembly of complex products is a little different, and especially when the third shift is assembled as an emergency measure to make production. The mold usually aspired to is either two shifts for 7 days, or 3 shifts for 5; allowing time for repairs and routine maintenance on the non-production times.

There's nothing wrong with 3rd shifts in general (I've spent a fair amount of time on them myself), but in this case, it seems like it wasn't part of the original plan.

[CaminoRacer]

In most cases those old sayings, like "never buy a car made on a Friday afternoon," are irrelevant anymore. Production and quality controls make differences due to human error pretty insignificant.

Yeah, but have you seen the quality of the 1st shift production?

My comment was also because the 3rd shift wasn't part of the original plan, like you mentioned.

[AutobahnSHO]

Not sure what I am missing with the knock against 24/7 shifts. That is the most efficient way to use a given amount of machinery. Our two main production facilities are both 24/7. The second largest will go down during holidays (demand permitting) but the largest is 24/7 and 365 days a year. It has been in continuous operation since the 80's and, outside of some catastrophe, should remain in continuous operation for decades to come.

We have two smaller facilities that we flex up and down with demand, but even those run 24/5. (with occasional Saturdays thrown in). Running one or two shifts seems horribly inefficient to me. If you are only running 2 shifts 5 days a week you are only utilizing about half the capacity.

I would guess that it will increase costs (of hiring a ton more workers) but they aren't going to make that up in sales?

Not to mention the down-time needed for maintenance and whatnot others mentioned ^^

[SJ_GTI]

You're talking about glass production, right?  That's nearly always the case for any continuous process; especially those that require heat and lines which are built around a primary machine like a blowmolder.

Assembly of complex products is a little different, and especially when the third shift is assembled as an emergency measure to make production. The mold usually aspired to is either two shifts for 7 days, or 3 shifts for 5; allowing time for repairs and routine maintenance on the non-production times.

There's nothing wrong with 3rd shifts in general (I've spent a fair amount of time on them myself), but in this case, it seems like it wasn't part of the original plan.

Yep, glass and glass containers for pharma products (not molded glass though).

I don't see how it follows that a more complicated process benefits from only have 1-2 shifts. If the manufacturing process is running well it shouldn't need managers there at night or weekends to keep an eye on things.

Re: maintenance, we do routine and preventative maintenance of course. Individual lines are down intermittently for maintenance but we don't shut down the whole place for it. Even at the places that are closed weekends we generally do the maintenance during the week anyway.

All that being said I am not specifically familiar with automotive manufacturing. I'll have to ask my brother the plant schedule for Subaru's US manufacturing site (I think it is just one).

[r0tor]

It doesn't matter.  We know what the production rate was supposed to be.  They revise it down constantly and still can't hit that.  There's no way the original plan called for 24/7 to hit 5,000 cars a week.  This is still just a fraction of the rate they were planning on achieving.  Plan and simple:  They have huge constraints (yes, more than one) that they can't resolve quickly enough so their solution is to run more shifts to try to increase output.  This will increase their cost.

Do you realize change to a 24x7 shift coverage takes a significant amount of planning including staffing, training, and supplier commitments?  It also takes a fair amount of financial commitment due to the increased staffing.   A decision like that isn't just made  on the fly - it was made at the beginning and implemented once suppliers got caught up and all the bugs worked out of the system... implementing before that point would have been a waste of money/resources.

[Soup DeVille]

Maintenance runs better at night mostly because it the managers aren't around to slow things down.

But really; you have relatively simple multiple lines. An auto assembly plant is essentially one line.  You cannot shut down any single significant part of it and keep running. So you have to do coordinated maintenance during scheduled downtime, or everybody in the plant sits and waits

[Soup DeVille]

Do you realize change to a 24x7 shift coverage takes a significant amount of planning including staffing, training, and supplier commitments?  It also takes a fair amount of financial commitment due to the increased staffing.   A decision like that isn't just made  on the fly - it was made at the beginning and implemented once suppliers got caught up and all the bugs worked out of the system... implementing before that point would have been a waste of money/resources.

Does it sound like all the bugs have been worked out of the system?

[MrH]

Not sure what I am missing with the knock against 24/7 shifts. That is the most efficient way to use a given amount of machinery. Our two main production facilities are both 24/7. The second largest will go down during holidays (demand permitting) but the largest is 24/7 and 365 days a year. It has been in continuous operation since the 80's and, outside of some catastrophe, should remain in continuous operation for decades to come.

We have two smaller facilities that we flex up and down with demand, but even those run 24/5. (with occasional Saturdays thrown in). Running one or two shifts seems horribly inefficient to me. If you are only running 2 shifts 5 days a week you are only utilizing about half the capacity.

When you design the line for a much faster takt time, running 24/7 to make up for these issues is not most efficient.

[MrH]

Do you realize change to a 24x7 shift coverage takes a significant amount of planning including staffing, training, and supplier commitments?  It also takes a fair amount of financial commitment due to the increased staffing.   A decision like that isn't just made  on the fly - it was made at the beginning and implemented once suppliers got caught up and all the bugs worked out of the system... implementing before that point would have been a waste of money/resources.

Lol, you just described exactly Tesla's problem. They were supposed to be at 5,000 per week in September of last year.  Then it was December.  Now we're in April and they haven't consistently shown they can do 2,000 a week.

This is why they have problems with suppliers.  They don't vet them properly to begin with (proper PPAP, run@rate, capacity analysis, etc).  Inevitably one has a major issue (see falcon wing door actuators, body alignment jigs, etc), Tesla doesn't hit their launch plan. As a result, all suppliers shuffle that capacity and labor elsewhere.  Bottleneck is fixed, and bam, they run right into another one because another supplier wasn't ready.

Nobody can afford to have lines sitting idle and labor waiting for the OEM to get their act together.

[r0tor]

Lol, you just described exactly Tesla's problem. They were supposed to be at 5,000 per week in September of last year.  Then it was December.  Now we're in April and they haven't consistently shown they can do 2,000 a week.

This is why they have problems with suppliers.  They don't vet them properly to begin with (proper PPAP, run@rate, capacity analysis, etc).  Inevitably one has a major issue (see falcon wing door actuators, body alignment jigs, etc), Tesla doesn't hit their launch plan. As a result, all suppliers shuffle that capacity and labor elsewhere.  Bottleneck is fixed, and bam, they run right into another one because another supplier wasn't ready.

Nobody can afford to have lines sitting idle and labor waiting for the OEM to get their act together.

Battery manufacturing is a different animal then traditional parts manufacturing

[Soup DeVille]

Is the problem entirely battery supply?

[MrH]

Battery manufacturing is a different animal then traditional parts manufacturing

Good thing the Model 3 is just a battery and not an entire car...no, wait...shit.

[93JC]

Battery manufacturing is a different animal then traditional parts manufacturing

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat? We've been manufacturing batteries since the 19th Century; the fuck are you talking about?!

[12,000 RPM]

This is amazing

YES TAVE, I'm giddy.

[r0tor]

Is the problem entirely battery supply?

This has been repeatedly admitted.  Firstly lithium had limited supply.  Secondly the battery packs are mostly hand assembled yet until a new assembly line gets up and running in the gigafactory.

There isn't exactly a large amount of suppliers out there capable of making battery packs for ev's as the tech is still very new, very specialized/proprietary, and still evolving.

[Soup DeVille]

This has been repeatedly admitted.  Firstly lithium had limited supply.  Secondly the battery packs are mostly hand assembled yet until a new assembly line gets up and running in the gigafactory.

There isn't exactly a large amount of suppliers out there capable of making battery packs for ev's as the tech is still very new, very specialized/proprietary, and still evolving.

It has been admitted that it is a problem. I don't think anybody can claim its the only one.

[GoCougs]

So cringe inducing to hear/see Musk try to talk like an engineer. Not too far removed from Thanos, really - so much irrational exuberance about things that just aren't realities created an unsustainable monster...

[Soup DeVille]

Thanos?