Analysis: When do electric vehicles become cleaner than gasoline cars?

[r0tor]

So build new ones.   

Technology has LEAPED FORWARD in the last 50 years.

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/next-gen-nuclear-plant-and-jobs-are-coming-wyoming

$2 BILLION for a small ass 400MW plant?!?!?  That's $5 million a MW.  That's 5000x the price of a gas or renewable plant

Why the fuck would anyone ever do that

[Morris Minor]

I remember noticing how awful the air quality was in eastern German (Saxony & Saxony-Anhalt) - an orange/yellow haze & a sulphury sort of smell. The government had ordered the permanent shutdown of all nuclear power generation in reaction to Fukushima. So they were back to mining & burning their low-grade bituminous coal.

It was a crazy and very damaging move. Good example of what happens progressives' irrational feelings & prejudices dictate the agenda.

[r0tor]

If that were really the case, the US would be screwed

[Submariner]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Hatav_Rdnno

Thoughts on this?

[NomisR]

Thoughts on this?

I've seen this before, still holds true today based off of current technology which is why I've been saying Hydrogen Fuel cell is superior and more likely for people to adopt providing the infrastructure is available.  Even with Tesla's "new" 4580 battery, the energy density remains exactly the same, the only gain is the result of the tab-less design which removes the bottleneck and increases energy output, I think the guy from the video you posted may have done a video on this too if I remember correctly. 

[NomisR]

Yes, an inhabitable area with a 12 mile radius for thousands of years is really that bad

That's what they said about Hiroshima and Nagasaki too.  It's not like we're dealing with things like Lake Karachay..

[CaminoRacer]

I've seen this before, still holds true today based off of current technology which is why I've been saying Hydrogen Fuel cell is superior and more likely for people to adopt providing the infrastructure is available.  Even with Tesla's "new" 4580 battery, the energy density remains exactly the same, the only gain is the result of the tab-less design which removes the bottleneck and increases energy output, I think the guy from the video you posted may have done a video on this too if I remember correctly. 

Probably. He has a lot of great videos. And he has a Tesla, he's not anti-EV. Just a pretty realistic guy.

[r0tor]

That's what they said about Hiroshima and Nagasaki too.  It's not like we're dealing with things like Lake Karachay..

WTF

They still have not even located where the fuel rods are at Fukushima.  Just pump hundreds of thousands of water on it that then gets contaminated and needs be be stored on a daily basis for the last 10 years and counting.

[AutobahnSHO]

$2 BILLION for a small ass 400MW plant?!?!?  That's $5 million a MW.  That's 5000x the price of a gas or renewable plant

Why the fuck would anyone ever do that

The first CD players were thousands of dollars, price will drop as they make more!

[Submariner]

I've seen this before, still holds true today based off of current technology which is why I've been saying Hydrogen Fuel cell is superior and more likely for people to adopt providing the infrastructure is available.  Even with Tesla's "new" 4580 battery, the energy density remains exactly the same, the only gain is the result of the tab-less design which removes the bottleneck and increases energy output, I think the guy from the video you posted may have done a video on this too if I remember correctly. 

If that is the case, how do there exist 600+ HP, 300-400mi range electric vehicles?

[GoCougs]

The first CD players were thousands of dollars, price will drop as they make more!

Not quite. Consumer electronics benefit from profound economies of scale - look at PCs and TVs as well. EVs haven't so benefited. The 2012 base Model S had an MSRP of $58k (~$75k in 2021 $). The 2021 base Model S has an MSRP of $70k. Sure the Model S has gotten better and more useful, but price hasn't material improved. In ten years.

[GoCougs]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Hatav_Rdnno

Thoughts on this?

Good video. Completely agree. The world's environmental picture will be vastly improved by continuing to improve the ICE (which is happening despite contrary claims of others ITT). He didn't mention diesels, and that is where most of the improvement is to be had, esp. in China, India, Africa, and metro areas in general.

EVs will be little more than a curiosity for ~20 years to come, till some Clarke 3rd law shit comes along for energy generation/storage (i.e., current batteries are DOA).

[AutobahnSHO]

Not quite. Consumer electronics benefit from profound economies of scale - look at PCs and TVs as well. EVs haven't so benefited. The 2012 base Model S had an MSRP of $58k (~$75k in 2021 $). The 2021 base Model S has an MSRP of $70k. Sure the Model S has gotten better and more useful, but price hasn't material improved. In ten years.

I hear ya- but that's one (bad) company vs an entire industry of learning how to build a giant system more efficiently.

The cost of building a complex building today is probably much much less than it was 60 years ago! YES the first of a new generation of nuclear plants may be high- but it should drop off pretty quickly going forward.

[CaminoRacer]

Nissan GT-R price rose every year. Model S's price increase is nothing compared to it. I think it shows that MSRP does not always reflect actual costs for luxury, performance, new technology, or otherwise special cars. Pricing decisions are based on a lot of other factors too.

https://jalopnik.com/this-chart-shows-how-the-nissan-gt-rs-price-has-skyrock-5877907

[r0tor]

Nuclear plants never get cheaper.

[AutobahnSHO]

Nuclear plants never get cheaper.

Source?

[r0tor]

Source?

The simple fact they stopped being built as prices to build one escalated out of control?

Google image? https://www.google.com/search?q=nuclear+plant+cost+history

[AutobahnSHO]

The simple fact they stopped being built as prices to build one escalated out of control?

Google image? https://www.google.com/search?q=nuclear+plant+cost+history

LOL Second link says that costs rose mostly due to regulation and safety after Three Mile Island incident. Also costs have risen as companies have "forgotten" how to build them, the last in the US was finished in the late 70s. Paper points out that costs have actually decreased more recently in South Korea, and wind, solar, and coal have all undergone periods of 100% price increases in the beginning phases.

TL;DR If the US gets serious and builds more than one, costs could decrease.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300106

[NomisR]

LOL Second link says that costs rose mostly due to regulation and safety after Three Mile Island incident. Also costs have risen as companies have "forgotten" how to build them, the last in the US was finished in the late 70s. Paper points out that costs have actually decreased more recently in South Korea, and wind, solar, and coal have all undergone periods of 100% price increases in the beginning phases.

TL;DR If the US gets serious and builds more than one, costs could decrease.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300106

Yet people are so scared of them that they're not building them or shutting them down.

[FoMoJo]

Yet people are so scared of them that they're not building them or shutting them down.

It would interesting to compare the cost of fuel used by nuclear as opposed to generating stations that use fossil fuels.

[NomisR]

It would interesting to compare the cost of fuel used by nuclear as opposed to generating stations that use fossil fuels.

Based on this.. which could be biased

http://nuclearconnect.org/know-nuclear/applications/energy

As of 2012, the average cost of power generation by nuclear plants was 2.40 cents per kilowatt-hour, for coal-fired plants 3.27 cents, for oil 22.48 cents, and for gas 3.40 cents.

[Galaxy]

Based on this.. which could be biased

http://nuclearconnect.org/know-nuclear/applications/energy

What the nuclear industry always conveniently leaves out of their costs analysis, is that governments underwrite the insurance,since it would be not affordable to ensure them in the market.   

[r0tor]

LOL Second link says that costs rose mostly due to regulation and safety after Three Mile Island incident. Also costs have risen as companies have "forgotten" how to build them, the last in the US was finished in the late 70s. Paper points out that costs have actually decreased more recently in South Korea, and wind, solar, and coal have all undergone periods of 100% price increases in the beginning phases.

TL;DR If the US gets serious and builds more than one, costs could decrease.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300106

The way power plants work (even non nuclear) for safety and environmental designs in the UD is you need to exceed the design of the last plant that came online.   It's very much an expensive race to the top and not a cheap race to the bottom.

[r0tor]

Based on this.. which could be biased

http://nuclearconnect.org/know-nuclear/applications/energy

Largely outdated.  Gas plants are easily in the $1.50-$2.50 range post economic collapse.  Oil is way more expensive than that

[NomisR]

Largely outdated.  Gas plants are easily in the $1.50-$2.50 range post economic collapse.  Oil is way more expensive than that

So gas makes even more sense, but doesn't it mean nuclear still makes sense?

[NomisR]

Another thought it with the cheap gas, hydrogen fuel cell home generation may make a lot of sense.. could also help heat water and homes as well.