Analysis: When do electric vehicles become cleaner than gasoline cars?

[CaminoRacer]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-do-electric-vehicles-become-cleaner-than-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/

[CaminoRacer]

Dotted green line is the typical line for American EVs, since our grid is a mix of renewables, natural gas, and coal.

[FoMoJo]

Obviously it's a good idea to get cracking on renewable energy sources, wind, sun, waves, etc.  Hydro is great, but limited by nature.

[FoMoJo]

Dotted red line is the typical line for American EVs, since our grid is a mix of renewables, natural gas, and coal.

The green dashes?

[SJ_GTI]

The green dashes?

I was thinking maybe I was color blind. I had to go back and check it. 

[CaminoRacer]

The green dashes?

oops yeah.

[Laconian]

Does this take manufacturing emissions into account? I would think that EVs front load their emissions during battery manufacturing.

[CaminoRacer]

Does this take manufacturing emissions into account? I would think that EVs front load their emissions during battery manufacturing.

Yes, you can see on the graph that the EVs start 25-50% higher.

[Laconian]

Yes, you can see on the graph that the EVs start 25-50% higher.

Derp. Gracias

I would have expected that building a car was a bigger cost versus powering it.

[GoCougs]

Obviously it's a good idea to get cracking on renewable energy sources, wind, sun, waves, etc.  Hydro is great, but limited by nature.

Except that it hasn't panned out as expected (higher operating costs, esp. shorter lifespan of equipment), plus the substantial fossil fuel toll (even outside global warming, if a person believes in such a thing) in building all that equipment to rebuild the US power grid. Hyrdo is the only "renewable" that's in the ballpark but yes, there are major limitations or substantial infrastructure projects to build damns out of small(er) rivers.

If people really believed in global warming they just buy that used Civic, not a new $40-$100k Tesla or whatever.

[CaminoRacer]

Except that it hasn't panned out as expected (higher operating costs, esp. shorter lifespan of equipment), plus the substantial fossil fuel toll (even outside global warming, if a person believes in such a thing) in building all that equipment to rebuild the US power grid. Hyrdo is the only "renewable" that's in the ballpark but yes, there are major limitations or substantial infrastructure projects to build damns out of small(er) rivers.

If people really believed in global warming they just buy that used Civic, not a new $40-$100k Tesla or whatever.

Did you even look at the graph or read the article?

I used to be a big proponent of nuclear, but at least here in Utah it's actually cheaper to do solar because there is less regulation/safety requirements, cleanup costs, etc. Coal is now more expensive than renewables. But continue to stick your head in the sand and ignore reality.

edit: A used Civic would just bring the red line down to zero to start, but the slope would be the same. EV line still crosses it after 2-3 years.

[FoMoJo]

Except that it hasn't panned out as expected (higher operating costs, esp. shorter lifespan of equipment), plus the substantial fossil fuel toll (even outside global warming, if a person believes in such a thing) in building all that equipment to rebuild the US power grid. Hyrdo is the only "renewable" that's in the ballpark but yes, there are major limitations or substantial infrastructure projects to build damns out of small(er) rivers.

If people really believed in global warming they just buy that used Civic, not a new $40-$100k Tesla or whatever.

As with most technologies, it must be refined.  The first automobile was not perfect, the first computer was not perfect.  Renewable energy technologies are at their beginning, barely a step off the mark.  Get busy and refine the technologies, invent something better.

[shp4man]

We need working fusion power plants before any large scale EV adoption.

[Laconian]

We need working fusion power plants before any large scale EV adoption.

Texas probably couldn't take it (they can't even deal with A/C), but WA has a big surplus of nighttime generation capacity and lots of clean hydro powering it.

EVs are smart; they can make globally optimal decisions about how and when to charge.

[GoCougs]

Did you even look at the graph or read the article?

I used to be a big proponent of nuclear, but at least here in Utah it's actually cheaper to do solar because there is less regulation/safety requirements, cleanup costs, etc. Coal is now more expensive than renewables. But continue to stick your head in the sand and ignore reality.

edit: A used Civic would just bring the red line down to zero to start, but the slope would be the same. EV line still crosses it after 2-3 years.

Sorta. Conflating "clean" with global warming and "CO2" wigged me out a bit (and not only because I deny global warming) so it's hard to digest for me.

Take all that money saved by buying that used Civic and put it to use elsewhere.

EVs and renewables have been around for 100+ years, and they still can't displace fossil fuels, despite decades of government hegemony trying to make it so. Think there's a trend? Even if it manages to do so it'll doom even a larger portion of the citizenry to poverty.

[GoCougs]

We need working fusion power plants before any large scale EV adoption.

Don't know about that. Look at what limitless food, credit, time and access to knowledge has done to WtP.

IMO fusion power will doom humanity.

[shp4man]

Don't know about that. Look at what limitless food, credit, time and access to knowledge has done to WtP.

IMO fusion power will doom humanity.

LOL.

[Laconian]

Don't know about that. Look at what limitless food, credit, time and access to knowledge has done to WtP.

IMO fusion power will doom humanity.

Sadly I agree! Satisfy one constraint and then we move onto the next bottleneck.

[CaminoRacer]

Sorta. Conflating "clean" with global warming and "CO2" wigged me out a bit (and not only because I deny global warming) so it's hard to digest for me.

Take all that money saved by buying that used Civic and put it to use elsewhere.

EVs and renewables have been around for 100+ years, and they still can't displace fossil fuels, despite decades of government hegemony trying to make it so. Think there's a trend? Even if it manages to do so it'll doom even a larger portion of the citizenry to poverty.

EVs and renewables ARE displacing fossil fuels now... The chemistry & engineering for current battery and renewable tech has not been around for 100 years, that's a flawed argument. 1900s gasoline engines beat out 1900s EVs but they're all dinosaurs compared to current gasoline engines and EVs and are therefore mostly irrelevant. Carbs have been replaced with fuel injection and lead acid batteries with lithium ion and new battery types. It's like saying the Chicago Bulls are gonna win the NBA championship this year because they had a dynasty in the 90s.

The used Civic argument is flawed as well, considering I bought a used Bolt for a great price.

[12,000 RPM]

Did you even look at the graph or read the article?

Of course not. Logic doesn't allow considering inconvenient information.

Logic also allows for arbitrarily accepting and denying science when convenient.

[Morris Minor]

Warmism is not my main motivator in wanting an EV. I want one because they scratch just about all my obsessive geek itches.

[CaminoRacer]

Warmism is not my main motivator in wanting an EV. I want one because they scratch just about all my obsessive geek itches.

Tesla's appeal to geeks and mind-blowing performance numbers definitely helped EVs enter the mainstream. My wife wanted our Bolt because of its low emissions, and I went along with it because it's basically a hot hatch with a better drivetrain than a Civic or Corolla that we probably would have gotten otherwise

[AutobahnSHO]

Tesla's appeal to geeks and mind-blowing performance numbers definitely helped EVs enter the mainstream. My wife wanted our Bolt because of its low emissions, and I went along with it because it's basically a hot hatch with a better drivetrain than a Civic or Corolla that we probably would have gotten otherwise

Yup yup.

[Morris Minor]

Texas probably couldn't take it (they can't even deal with A/C), but WA has a big surplus of nighttime generation capacity and lots of clean hydro powering it.

EVs are smart; they can make globally optimal decisions about how and when to charge.

This. They are computers on skateboards.

Tesla has a recall going on in China. This has caused much pained on-camera handwringing among the chattering classes.
Oh my god, hundreds of thousands of endangered owners must book an appointment with the dealers. Go through service manager hell - "while you're here we need to rape you with a transmission flush an oil change, and all the filters replaced."
No - it's on over-the-air update.

[CaminoRacer]

Sadly I agree! Satisfy one constraint and then we move onto the next bottleneck.

Simplifying our lives and reducing our consumption would probably be better for most people. People buy so much garbage and they'd be healthier and happier if they just slowed down.

[ChrisV]

Let's just say when comparing EVs and ICE you can do a fair comparison or an unfair comparison. In the fair version, cars of the same size, power, cost and utility are compared, which do the same sort of miles, are manufactured using the same energy sources and grid mix and the pollution including CO2 caused by operating them is fully considered, which means the data for the EV includes the fossil fuel used in the power grid, and the data for the fossil fuel car includes the carbon and pollution generated by the oil industry to get the fuel and lubricants to the car.

When you do this fair comparison, the EV starts off a little worse for the planet and somewhere between 15k- and 40k-miles later is now better for the planet and it continues to pull away leaving the fossil fuel car in the unsustainable dust. The EV produces currently an average of 50% less CO2 over its entire lifecycle than the comparable fossil fuel car and a lot less of the other pollutants, none of which are deposited into the air where people live.

As grids de-carbonize this gets better and better, even for EVs that have already been manufactured. Fossil burners do not get upgrades to be less polluting later down the line unless you mean biofuel which is problematic due to its use of farm land, instead, they get more polluting as they wear out. The tiny incremental improvements in combustion engines which have taken 130 years to arrive have now placed them somewhere around 30% efficiency compared to the EV's 85–90% efficiency, and they have only just gotten started. Electric cars are in the pipeline that are claimed to achieve 10 miles per kWh. That's a startling 10 times less energy per mile than an average fossil fuel car.

and not only because I deny global warming

Well, there you go Cougs. No wonder you're so wrong about everything else EV related.


EVs are not meant to be an evolution of fossil fuel cars. They are not meant to be a fossil-fuel-car-but-better.

Yes, that's right, that's what I said, they are NOT meant to be better overall in the traditional sense.

They are meant to be almost as convenient while reducing the harm to our planet caused by cars and driving by 50% now and an even greater percentage in the future, as grids de-carbonize and EVs are manufactured with more clean energy. They are meant to allow this activity - driving- which has brought immense freedom and prosperity to many, to continue but without as much of the harm that it causes through local pollution and global pollution including CO2 and climate change.

We cannot continue to demand the same level of luxury and convenience as the generations before us had, it did not work, they were not leaving the planet better for those to come.

This is a big, hard pill to swallow, but it is going to have to be swallowed nonetheless. Which is why my daily driver is now, and will continue to be, an EV. It's a fun car that is overall going to be better in non-traditional ways. And as soon as an EV replacement for the MINI in my sig becomes available, the fun weekend car will also be an EV.

[GoCougs]

Let's just say when comparing EVs and ICE you can do a fair comparison or an unfair comparison. In the fair version, cars of the same size, power, cost and utility are compared, which do the same sort of miles, are manufactured using the same energy sources and grid mix and the pollution including CO2 caused by operating them is fully considered, which means the data for the EV includes the fossil fuel used in the power grid, and the data for the fossil fuel car includes the carbon and pollution generated by the oil industry to get the fuel and lubricants to the car.

When you do this fair comparison, the EV starts off a little worse for the planet and somewhere between 15k- and 40k-miles later is now better for the planet and it continues to pull away leaving the fossil fuel car in the unsustainable dust. The EV produces currently an average of 50% less CO2 over its entire lifecycle than the comparable fossil fuel car and a lot less of the other pollutants, none of which are deposited into the air where people live.

As grids de-carbonize this gets better and better, even for EVs that have already been manufactured. Fossil burners do not get upgrades to be less polluting later down the line unless you mean biofuel which is problematic due to its use of farm land, instead, they get more polluting as they wear out. The tiny incremental improvements in combustion engines which have taken 130 years to arrive have now placed them somewhere around 30% efficiency compared to the EV's 85–90% efficiency, and they have only just gotten started. Electric cars are in the pipeline that are claimed to achieve 10 miles per kWh. That's a startling 10 times less energy per mile than an average fossil fuel car.

Well, there you go Cougs. No wonder you're so wrong about everything else EV related.


EVs are not meant to be an evolution of fossil fuel cars. They are not meant to be a fossil-fuel-car-but-better.

Yes, that's right, that's what I said, they are NOT meant to be better overall in the traditional sense.

They are meant to be almost as convenient while reducing the harm to our planet caused by cars and driving by 50% now and an even greater percentage in the future, as grids de-carbonize and EVs are manufactured with more clean energy. They are meant to allow this activity - driving- which has brought immense freedom and prosperity to many, to continue but without as much of the harm that it causes through local pollution and global pollution including CO2 and climate change.

We cannot continue to demand the same level of luxury and convenience as the generations before us had, it did not work, they were not leaving the planet better for those to come.

This is a big, hard pill to swallow, but it is going to have to be swallowed nonetheless. Which is why my daily driver is now, and will continue to be, an EV. It's a fun car that is overall going to be better in non-traditional ways. And as soon as an EV replacement for the MINI in my sig becomes available, the fun weekend car will also be an EV.

I'm wrong, yet you 100% agree with me that EVs are not nor will ever be equivalent to ICE-powered vehicles, and the REAL environmental solution is on the demand side?

You're falling into the eternal trappings of the state and its propaganda - guilty, self-loathing, and subordination to the occult in effect, all to your detriment.

Once your global warming icons actually believe in global warming, then I feel it's proper to reassess. They're doing exactly the opposite, esp. WRT the US military, trips into space, private cities in New Zealand, and all the rest of their global warming crimes, so you've got some time.

Me, I'll demand and will take whatever luxury and convenience I deem appropriate. I mean, your icons are, why shouldn't I (and you)?

[r0tor]

...it's easy to not care about the future I guess when you don't have to worry about the welfare of kids and grandkids...

[FoMoJo]

Something I've noticed since we moved from the countryside into the city, I haven't seen any stars.  I've seen the Moon and Mars, but no stars.  We're not too far from the airport, so that is likely a contributing factor but still, I'm just a bit surprised that there is still enough pollution to block out the stars.

I think that, especially, transit buses that were EVs, would make a different, taxis, government vehicles, etc. as well, but there should come a time when any city vehicle needs to be an EV.  It would certainly help with my wife's sinus condition.  Ever since we moved to the city she hasn't stopped sneezing.

[SJ_GTI]

Something I've noticed since we moved from the countryside into the city, I haven't seen any stars.  I've seen the Moon and Mars, but no stars.  We're not too far from the airport, so that is likely a contributing factor but still, I'm just a bit surprised that there is still enough pollution to block out the stars.

I think that, especially, transit buses that were EVs, would make a different, taxis, government vehicles, etc. as well, but there should come a time when any city vehicle needs to be an EV.  It would certainly help with my wife's sinus condition.  Ever since we moved to the city she hasn't stopped sneezing.

If by pollution you mean light pollution you are probably right. Its harder to see things in the night sky mainly because of how many lights are on in the cities. Unless you are in a very smoggy city (LA for example) of course, but Toronto never struck me as particularly polluted.