https://jalopnik.com/ford-will-phase-out-all-its-small-cars-in-north-america-1825544784
The Ford Fusion, Focus, C-Max, Taurus, and Fiesta—all on the way out in North America as Ford transitions its lineup to one that is all but entirely dominated by SUVs, crossovers and trucks, the automaker announced today.
In the coming years, only the Mustang and new Focus Active mini-crossover will be in Ford's North America lineup, Ford said today in a Q1 financial report.
"Over the next few years, the Ford car portfolio in North America will transition to two vehicles – the best-selling Mustang and the all-new Focus Active crossover coming out next year. The company is also exploring new 'white space' vehicle silhouettes that combine the best attributes of cars and utilities, such as higher ride height, space and versatility."
Additionally, the company said "Given declining consumer demand and product profitability, the company will not invest in next generations of traditional Ford sedans for North America."
One thing Ford did not say is when this will happen, though it's fair to assume that it will happen relatively quickly. All of those small cars and sedans are pretty old and due for replacements or at least updates that now won't happen. It's also fair to say the future doesn't look bright for some of our favorite performance cars, like the Fiesta ST, Focus ST and Focus RS.
The New York Times said yesterday that Ford loses money on the Focus, Fiesta, and Fusion, and Ford CEO Jim Hackett has signaled that he intends to be ruthless when it comes to raising the automaker's profits. Ford North America's profit margin was eight percent last year, or 2.7 percent less than what GM's was.
And on Wednesday, Ford reported even worse financials.
Here's the NYT:
Net income totaled $1.7 billion, up by $100 million from the same period a year earlier, and earnings increased to 43 cents a share, up by 3 cents. But the company's profit margin slipped to 5.2 percent from 6.4 percent a year earlier. Profits before taxes fell to $2.2 billion from $2.5 billion. And in every region of the world, Ford reported either a decline in profits or a loss.
In North America, Ford's largest and most important region, pretax profit was $1.9 billion, down $200 million from a year earlier. Its margin in North America fell to 7.8 percent from 8.9 percent.
Hackett has also said he intends for Ford to go all-in on America's seemingly insatiable desire for SUVs, introducing the EcoSport this year, in addition to several more SUV models planned for the future. Hackett's hoping that those models will boost profits that have, in recent years, been propped up by the company's best-selling F-Series trucks.
Ford's exit of the North American sedan market is not without considerable risk, since it makes Ford vulnerable to a rise in gas prices, which might send consumers back to cars that aren't SUVs. Like, you know, sedans.
And then there's that Focus Active, which is a mini-crossover that would compete with the Subaru Crosstrek. It looks... fine? It'll have to do, as it will soon be the only car-ish thing in Ford's North American lineup outside of a dang Mustang.
What a shit show...
Whoops, meant this for mainstreamers. Anyways, I hope this bites them in the ass.
Everything is pointing to massive fuel cost increases coming soon.
Lol Ford.
Found Off Road Dead.
Small cars, and cars in general still sell well in Canada. I wonder if we'll eventually have to break the NA Auto Pact to source cars from Europe? This doesn't bode well for dealers up here. Our average fuel price for unleaded is over $5 a gallon and rising fast.
LOL I've seen this story before. It was 1970s, and the big three floundered while Japanese companies rushed in and stole lots of market share.
Well I sort of was a somewhat Ford fan... I will no longer care about them and not notice when they die
Wow, I guess Ford Europe is DOA now.
Real world, these small SUV's don't get as good MPG as their sedan and hatchback counterparts, and they're more expensive to buy, as well. This is a sad day.
Not to mention, the price per barrel of oil has been creeping up....
The fact that Ford can't seem to make a profit on 500K at least of units a year on car models sounds like there are serious issues at Ford. Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, and even Chevrolet offer a full line of vehicles.
Eh, those of you poo-poo-ing the decision, buy more new cars?
If gas prices rise, they still will be designing/replacing these cars, just not selling them in the US. If gas prices rise, they'll just sell them here again.
I'm not really seeing the downside from Fords perspective.
Most current new vehicle buyers, on the other hand, fuck you.
Quote from: Rich on April 26, 2018, 12:31:07 AM
Eh, those of you poo-poo-ing the decision, buy more new cars?
If gas prices rise, they still will be designing/replacing these cars, just not selling them in the US. If gas prices rise, they'll just sell them here again.
I'm not really seeing the downside from Fords perspective.
Most current new vehicle buyers, on the other hand, fuck you.
Import them from where? China? Mexico? Europe? The fact that they flat out cancelled the Fusion's 2020 redesign, and the fact the Fiesta is basically a heavily facelifted version of the old car is not a good sign. Also, Ford definitely sold at least 500K units of it's car shaped models last year alone. Do they really think 500K people will buy an Ecosport or Escape? It sounds incredibly short sided.
It's definitely alienating any sort of new buyers. The only cheap entry into the Ford stable will be the, Ecosport which is crap. Anything fun (Save for the Mustang) will be dead.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 12:45:16 AM
Import them from where? China? Mexico? Europe? The fact that they flat out cancelled the Fusion's 2020 redesign, and the fact the Fiesta is basically a heavily facelifted version of the old car is not a good sign. Also, Ford definitely sold at least 500K units of it's car shaped models last year alone. Do they really think 500K people will buy an Ecosport or Escape? It sounds incredibly short sided.
It's definitely alienating any sort of new buyers. The only cheap entry into the Ford stable will be the, Ecosport which is crap. Anything fun (Save for the Mustang) will be dead.
why would they need to import them? Their plants are fairly flexible, they just start making whatever they want on them. If they do it right (have thair smaller CUVs share architecture with the sedans/hatches overseas), it shouldn't be overly painful. I understand spinning up the supply chain can be a pain, but it's not like they would have to develop a new car/plant from scratch if they need to switch.
500K probably won't switch, but I'd bet half would. CUV/SUV sales are booming, and I'm sure even some of the current 500K are thinking about getting CUV as a next vehicle. We'll find out soon.
The ecosport is due for a redesign soon. And I think I read somewhere they will have an "allroad" like Focus too.
If things stay as they are, other OEMs will follow suit.
Yeah, but if the cars never had any intention of being federalized from the start, then the costs associated would be high.
This doesn't sound like a very smart goal, especially from an enthusiast's perspective. Axing all cars for mediocre SUV's (and the Ecosport and Escape are mediocre) seems like a crap move.
Also, I've read more than one report that Ford is also considering pulling out of Europe as well.
I believe they think in the NA market they have enough brand loyalty that their car buyers will just roll over and switch to buying more expensive (and profitable) SUVs.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 01:20:18 AM
Yeah, but if the cars never had any intention of being federalized from the start, then the costs associated would be high.
This doesn't sound like a very smart goal, especially from an enthusiast's perspective. Axing all cars for mediocre SUV's (and the Ecosport and Escape are mediocre) seems like a crap move.
Also, I've read more than one report that Ford is also considering pulling out of Europe as well.
[raza]all cars will be self driving pods anyway, like in idiocracy [see ecosport], no one will be making things for enthusiasts outside of Lotus/Ferrari/Lambo/A-M[/raza]
Quote from: Rockraven on April 25, 2018, 06:02:38 PM
Whoops, meant this for mainstreamers. Anyways, I hope this bites them in the ass.
Why, and how? Nobody wants Ford sedans. The Focus and Fusion are selling half what they used to on a monthly basis. Refreshes from competitors haven't helped (Malibu, Sonata/Optima, Accord). Margins are razor thin thanks to the UAW and incentive tolerance. What do you suggest?
Widespread enthusiasm for the automobile and the act of driving in America, and Europe, is dead. Automakers are just chasing what consumers, and regulators, want. Smaller, lower emissions engines. Greater fuel economy. More connectivity with gadgets. More autonomous driving features like auto braking, lane assist, adaptive cruise, or even wholesale autopilot so people can pay more mind to their gadgets and increased connectivity.
I have to wonder if increased CAFE standards are a factor. SUV have much lower CAFE requirements. If the cars aren't big moneymakers anyway, just stop selling them rather than sinking Bunches of money into them to satisfy fuel economy regulations.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 06:49:34 AM
Why, and how?
Crippling fuel prices and runaway inflation during the impending Trumpocalypse.
Quote from: Rockraven on April 26, 2018, 07:00:17 AM
Crippling fuel prices and runaway inflation during the impending Trumpocalypse.
Won't happen..........................................
SUVs/trucks are way more efficient than they used to be. 10 years ago a CR-V got 22MPG combined, and a base F-150 got 14 (!!!!). Now they get 29 and 22 respectively.
Plus gas is currently like $2.80/gallon... not far from the $3.90 peak from before. And crossover sales are accelerating at the expense of (slightly) more efficient sedans.
If a recession comes it's going to affect everything equally. If anything sedans might get hit worse....
Honestly after buzzing around in a Jeep Renegade rental the last couple days, I could see how people are ready to switch. I paid $7 in gas and didn't pay attention to the odometer. I believe I was getting upwards of 26mpg in stop and go city driving and I wasn't nice to the accelerator pedal. It was comfortable to get in and out of, even though it had about the same overall room as my wife's Impreza it felt more substantial. Add the "trail ready!!!" nonsense and 4WD and I can see why people would buy CUVs over economy cars.
I know some here are OK to put infants in footwells and the like but it's nice to have room for the car seat + stroller as well as groceries and whatever we get going out.
Really the big benefit of crossovers to me isn't ground clearance or hip height or any of that shit. It's just the roominess. Me and wifey's cars are the same length but her car is way roomier. Part of it is my car being RWD but even still. A Civic is about the length of the MKX and obviously nowhere near as roomy. A wagon as roomy as the MKX would be a lot longer and a pain to park in the garage. It just works
Is the average SUV/CUV any more expensive to produce than the sedan its based off of? I know they sell for more, but is that all just profit? The reason I ask is because this could swing Ford's average transaction price way up and cars are already getting expensive enough as it is and potentially price people out. This would also leave a lot of markets open. Not sure its a great idea, TBH.
It is all margin. ATPs will go up, which is not bad. The sedans were probably selling at zero margin. New cars are and always have been a luxury, so getting priced out is no biggie.
Truthfully IMO there are too many brands and offerings with not enough meaningful differentiation to justify them all. Industry has been long overdue for a purge.
You need to sell a product though and having something that's not at the lower end will leave you with multiple hot potatoes if/when the market tanks again. It seems like Ford is also betting that car ownership moves into primarily car subscription services in the next ten years with this move as well cause then the average price doesn't mater.
They lose ~$800m/yr selling cars in NA. They've lost money on passenger cars about as far back as I can remember. If they can't consistently make money selling something, why continue doing it? Charity?
Is that number highlighted in their financials somewhere? Cause Jesus, that is horrible.
Quote from: mzziaz on April 26, 2018, 12:00:28 AM
Wow, I guess Ford Europe is DOA now.
Ford of Europe is not part of this decision.
Quote from: Xer0 on April 26, 2018, 09:03:28 AM
You need to sell a product though and having something that's not at the lower end will leave you with multiple hot potatoes if/when the market tanks again. It seems like Ford is also betting that car ownership moves into primarily car subscription services in the next ten years with this move as well cause then the average price doesn't mater.
When the recession hit, everybody died. F150, Camry, Civic, Corolla, all down by double digit %ages. Ironically, you know what top 10 seller weathered the storm the best?
*drumroll*
(https://hips.hearstapps.com/amv-prod-cad-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/08q3/267371/2009-honda-cr-v-photo-225735-s-original.jpg)
CR-V was only down 3%. So the suggestion that crossovers won't do well when gas spikes or a recession hits isn't true based on past data.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 09:22:15 AM
When the recession hit, everybody died. F150, Camry, Civic, Corolla, all down by double digit %ages. Ironically, you know what top 10 seller weathered the storm the best?
*drumroll*
(https://hips.hearstapps.com/amv-prod-cad-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/08q3/267371/2009-honda-cr-v-photo-225735-s-original.jpg)
CR-V was only down 3%. So the suggestion that crossovers won't do well when gas spikes or a recession hits isn't true based on past data.
The suggestion wasn't that crossovers don't sell well, the suggestion was that moving to a primarily SUV/CUV lineup will lead to an expensive lineup which will price out your customers and assuming another downturn happens, you'll be left with only expensive products that people can't afford.
Quote from: Xer0 on April 26, 2018, 09:09:52 AM
Is that number highlighted in their financials somewhere? Cause Jesus, that is horrible.
It was an estimate I saw. They also have a slide that says they are focusing capital in areas that generate 150% of company ebit ... implying there's an awful lot that is negative.
Hmm.... It seems like the future is gravitating towards electrics which is heavily dependant on efficiency. So let's get rid of all the vehicles that will be efficient...
Quote from: Xer0 on April 26, 2018, 09:29:19 AM
The suggestion wasn't that crossovers don't sell well, the suggestion was that moving to a primarily SUV/CUV lineup will lead to an expensive lineup which will price out your customers and assuming another downturn happens, you'll be left with only expensive products that people can't afford.
All cars/crossovers, cheap/expensive, were hit just about equally by the recession (on average). If we get hit with another one car vs crossover balance will be the least of the industry's problems.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 10:02:56 AM
Hmm.... It seems like the future is gravitating towards electrics which is heavily dependant on efficiency. So let's get rid of all the vehicles that will be efficient...
Explain to me how you see car companies making money selling cars nobody buys.
Ford not making money on car shaped things sounds like a Ford problem.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 10:07:23 AM
Explain to me how you see car companies making money selling cars nobody buys.
VW, BMW, Toyota and GM have announced heavy funding towards EV research and each having dozens of EVs by the early 2020's... The exact time Ford will be out of the car game.
EVs obviously work best with aero efficiency otherwise range and charging capacity suffer. So not only is the shitty CEO overlooking the fact that segment popularity changes like fashion, fuel price spike can and will happen, but they are also ignoring what the marketplace will be in 5 years.
I'm disappointed at how a lot of y'all really thrive on being contrarian. The death of the car is not a good thing for a place that is supposed to like cars.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 10:34:29 AM
VW, BMW, Toyota and GM have announced heavy funding towards EV research and each having dozens of EVs by the early 2020's... The exact time Ford will be out of the car game.
EVs obviously work best with aero efficiency otherwise range and charging capacity suffer. So not only is the shitty CEO overlooking the fact that segment popularity changes like fashion, fuel price spike can and will happen, but they are also ignoring what the marketplace will be in 5 years.
Plus their supercar is slower than a $120k dinosaur and the Mustang is slower than the Camaro.
Poor product planning and development all around.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on April 26, 2018, 10:37:51 AM
Plus their supercar is slower than a $120k dinosaur and the Mustang is slower than the Camaro.
Poor product planning and development all around.
and the $120k dinosaur got it's ass kicked by a German flat 6 at the 'ring... Boo hoo
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 10:39:19 AM
and the $120k dinosaur got it's ass kicked by a German flat 6 at the 'ring... Boo hoo
A $300k flat 6.
Plus, there's a new Vette coming out that might be an answer to the Porsche.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 10:06:44 AM
All cars/crossovers, cheap/expensive, were hit just about equally by the recession (on average). If we get hit with another one car vs crossover balance will be the least of the industry's problems.
LOL Except Subaru. The only manufacturer to increase market share every year 2007+ for like 7-8 years.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 10:39:19 AM
and the $120k dinosaur got it's ass kicked by a German flat 6 at the 'ring... Boo hoo
Which German? :confused:
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 10:35:57 AM
I'm disappointed at how a lot of y'all really thrive on being contrarian. The death of the car is not a good thing for a place that is supposed to like cars.
I think it's very very sad.
Besides being a little higher, a CUV/SUV really is NOT that much "roomier" than many wagons/ hatches.
Oh, the GT3 RS is sub-7 too. But, meh. Corvette engineers don't place as much emphasis on the Ring as the Germans do. (Makes sense given geography...)
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a19851146/dont-pay-attention-to-those-corvette-zr1-nurburgring-time-rumors/
Quote from: CaminoRacer on April 26, 2018, 10:47:28 AM
Oh, the GT3 RS is sub-7 too. But, meh. Corvette engineers don't place as much emphasis on the Ring as the Germans do. (Makes sense given geography...)
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a19851146/dont-pay-attention-to-those-corvette-zr1-nurburgring-time-rumors/
OHHH OK! I was thinking a CHEAPER German 6 outran the ZR1.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on April 26, 2018, 10:43:23 AM
GT2 RS
I was actually talking about the GT3RS but that also kills it...
Quote from: CaminoRacer on April 26, 2018, 10:43:23 AM
GT2 RS
That thing is almost 300K!!!! I didn't know they cost that much!
Quote from: Gotta-Qik-C6 on April 26, 2018, 10:55:21 AM
That thing is almost 300K!!!! I didn't know they cost that much!
I'm sure 100k of it is just the Porsche badge tax.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 10:50:50 AM
I was actually talking about the GT3RS but that also kills it...
As it should!!! 300K is crazy for a 911.......
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 10:35:57 AM
I'm disappointed at how a lot of y'all really thrive on being contrarian. The death of the car is not a good thing for a place that is supposed to like cars.
It's not like the cars being phased out are an enthisiasts's wet dream. If they can't make money on them, they should discontinue.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 11:06:20 AM
It's not like the cars being phased out are an enthisiasts's wet dream. If they can't make money on them, they should discontinue.
I liked the Focus and Fiesta. This also likely means the RS and ST variants are also gone too.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 10:33:04 AM
Ford not making money on car shaped things sounds like a Ford problem.
Eh, GM has always had a hard time profitably selling passenger cars in the US, and Chrysler went the same direction already.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 11:13:03 AM
I liked the Focus and Fiesta. This also likely means the RS and ST variants are also gone too.
Yeah, it's sad they aren't at least keeping the focus I suppose.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 11:13:03 AM
I liked the Focus and Fiesta. This also likely means the RS and ST variants are also gone too.
Ford has already said the Fiesta ST and FoRS are done in North America.
The affordable sporty car Renaissance was fun while it lasted...
Quote from: Gotta-Qik-C6 on April 26, 2018, 10:56:17 AM
As it should!!! 300K is crazy for a 911.......
$187k for the gt3rs
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 11:06:20 AM
It's not like the cars being phased out are an enthisiasts's wet dream. If they can't make money on them, they should discontinue.
The Fusion outsells the Edge by a wide wide margin... It's not just a loss for enthusiasts but for average shoppers as well
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 11:37:38 AM
The Fusion outsells the Edge by a wide wide margin... It's not just a loss for enthusiasts but for average shoppers as well
Is the fusion that differentiated the average non enthusiast shopper can't find a suitable substitute? Should Ford keep producing money losing products indefinitely?
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 10:34:29 AM
VW, BMW, Toyota and GM have announced heavy funding towards EV research and each having dozens of EVs by the early 2020's... The exact time Ford will be out of the car game.
EVs obviously work best with aero efficiency otherwise range and charging capacity suffer. So not only is the shitty CEO overlooking the fact that segment popularity changes like fashion, fuel price spike can and will happen, but they are also ignoring what the marketplace will be in 5 years.
They can announce all the funding they want. This still doesn't explain how Ford is going to make money on cars nobody wants to buy. Even EV tech is not immune. BMW has announced this:
(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--iOJHMfYF--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/uqn7xiqhiiimzdnkmmrk.jpg)
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 11:48:37 AM
They can announce all the funding they want. This still doesn't explain how Ford is going to make money on cars nobody wants to buy. Even EV tech is not immune. BMW has announced this:
(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--iOJHMfYF--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/uqn7xiqhiiimzdnkmmrk.jpg)
and Tesla has more orders then it can build for years for the 3 sedan.
There is still a strong market for sedans. They just need to be good sedans
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 11:37:38 AM
The Fusion outsells the Edge by a wide wide margin... It's not just a loss for enthusiasts but for average shoppers as well
They are reaching parity. 2 years ago Fusion outsold the Edge 2-3x. Now their monthly sales are separated by 2-3 thousand. Won't be long before the Edge outsells the Fusion (if it lives that long).
I dont take much pleasure in watching this go down. Going to be a lot of lost jobs from the reduced capacity. But it's better for Ford to scale back now and live to fight another day, than throw precious capital after cars nobody wants to save face and make people feel good. Again if the market changes then I'm sure Ford will turn the faucet back on and get that money. But I haven't heard any good business reasons why they should stay in
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 11:53:20 AM
and Tesla has more orders then it can build for years for the 3 sedan.
There is still a strong market for sedans. They just need to be good sedans
Ford's sedans are good. As Tesla demonstrates everyday brand goes very far. Far enough that at times the product can be secondary in the buying decision process.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 11:44:46 AM
Is the fusion that differentiated the average non enthusiast shopper can't find a suitable substitute? Should Ford keep producing money losing products indefinitely?
Cars sell for what people are willing to pay for them. Domestic automakers struggle to make profits because they sell boring ass appliances that people are only willing to buy at steep discounts. There is nothing stopping that trend from hitting the SUV market.
This is a typically short sighted finance guy move who is missing the much larger picture.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 11:56:48 AM
Cars sell for what people are willing to pay for them. Domestic automakers struggle to make profits because they sell boring ass appliances that people are only willing to buy at steep discounts. There is nothing stopping that trend from hitting the SUV market.
This is a typically short sighted finance guy move who is missing the much larger picture.
I'm confused, if the Fusion is such a "loss for average shoppers" how come they can't sell it for enough to be profitable?
A company striving to earn an economic profit is not short sighted. Ford isn't a charity.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 11:55:46 AM
Ford's sedans are good. As Tesla demonstrates everyday brand goes very far. Far enough that at times the product can be secondary in the buying decision process.
Fords sedan are helplessly in need of a refresh (beyond new bumpers). I could park my parents 5 year old Fusion Hybrid next to my neighbors brand new Fusion sport and it would be a struggle to figure out which is new.
It's not a big surprise that sales are decreasing
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 11:53:20 AM
and Tesla has more orders then it can build for years for the 3 sedan.
There is still a strong market for sedans. They just need to be good sedans
If the Model 3 had a Ford badge it wouldn't be selling as well, although ironically Ford might be actually able to produce them.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 12:00:50 PM
I'm confused, if the Fusion is such a "loss for average shoppers" how come they can't sell it for enough to be profitable?
A company striving to earn an economic profit is not short sighted. Ford isn't a charity.
When do you face the music, now or when you can only sell an Edge with negative profits? Running from sedans is just putting off the inevitable and depending on the market could accelerate their demise.
I get the gist the fusion is profitable.
It's just that CUV's are more profitable
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 12:03:10 PM
When do you face the music, now or when you can only sell an Edge with negative profits? Running from sedans is just putting off the inevitable and depending on the market could accelerate their demise.
Looks to me they are facing the music. They are acknowledging they can't make money in cars and making the economically sound decision.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 12:04:20 PM
I get the gist the fusion is profitable.
It’s just that CUV’s are more profitable
Seems people won't pay $20K for a 4 door hatchback, but happily pay $25K for essentially the same vehicle with a bit of cladding and 1/2" taller shocks. Oh, I can get it with AWD? Here's another $5K! Take my money! With 72 months financing my monthly payment is the same as the lowly car! (at 60 months). SO MUCH WIN!
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 12:01:23 PM
Fords sedan are helplessly in need of a refresh (beyond new bumpers). I could park my parents 5 year old Fusion Hybrid next to my neighbors brand new Fusion sport and it would be a struggle to figure out which is new.
It's not a big surprise that sales are decreasing
Several of the Fusion's competitors have refreshed over its lifetime. The Malibu, Sonata and Optima are all new, and all in equally bad shape sales wise.
Bottom line, only companies that can move decent volume at decent margin in this space are Honda and Toyota. Ford can build cars that are as good (or better- Focus is better than the last Civic and all Corollas IMO) and it's not enough. At a certain point brand trumps all, even in the mainstream space :huh:
It's too bad but if they're losing that kind of money on sedans then it's probably best to pull the plug. It's a shame because I nearly pulled the trigger on a 2018 Fiesta Hatchback 5MT for 12.9K a month ago and was a good amount of car for the cash.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 12:03:10 PM
When do you face the music, now or when you can only sell an Edge with negative profits? Running from sedans is just putting off the inevitable and depending on the market could accelerate their demise.
This makes no sense.... for the last 20 years, Ford has struggled with sedans and thrived on trucks/SUVs in the US. The only things that have changed are that those trucks/SUVs get livable fuel economy, and Ford is finally willing to make profit, rather than market share, a priority. Market presence is worthless if it comes at the expense of profit.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 12:04:20 PM
I get the gist the fusion is profitable.
It's just that CUV's are more profitable
I feel like the difference in MSRP between an equally equipped Edge and Fusion is like $3-5K. But the actual transaction price difference is like $10K.
You flip cars.... if you could double or triple your profit on every flip for the same amount of work just by focusing on certain cars, why wouldn't you?
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 12:39:47 PM
Several of the Fusion's competitors have refreshed over its lifetime. The Malibu, Sonata and Optima are all new, and all in equally bad shape sales wise.
Bottom line, only companies that can move decent volume at decent margin in this space are Honda and Toyota. Ford can build cars that are as good (or better- Focus is better than the last Civic and all Corollas IMO) and it's not enough. At a certain point brand trumps all, even in the mainstream space :huh:
I think it depends on how you determine "better". The auto transmissions alone put the Fiesta & Focus by default towards the bottom since they're ticking time bombs and for that reason alone I've steered friends and family away from them. Yes the transmission is just one component but a big one and a car isn't any good if it can't move.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 12:46:44 PM
I feel like the difference in MSRP between an equally equipped Edge and Fusion is like $3-5K. But the actual transaction price difference is like $10K.
You flip cars.... if you could double or triple your profit on every flip for the same amount of work just by focusing on certain cars, why wouldn't you?
And what if, instead of migrating from a Fusion to an Edge, Fusion buyers go to their local Honda or Toyota store and pick up a CamCord instead? That only benefits Ford if they are selling Fusions at a loss (they aren't).
Quote from: MX793 on April 26, 2018, 12:53:24 PM
And what if, instead of migrating from a Fusion to an Edge, Fusion buyers go to their local Honda or Toyota store and pick up a CamCord instead? That only benefits Ford if they are selling Fusions at a loss (they aren't).
What makes you think they aren't?
Quote from: Rockraven on April 26, 2018, 12:13:01 PM
Seems people won't pay $20K for a 4 door hatchback, but happily pay $25K for essentially the same vehicle with a bit of cladding and 1/2" taller shocks. Oh, I can get it with AWD? Here's another $5K! Take my money! With 72 months financing my monthly payment is the same as the lowly car! (at 60 months). SO MUCH WIN!
It's important you buy the hatchback for $30K. The profits will go to a very worthy cause, so do it for the greater good.
- Ministry of Good and Plenty
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 12:59:27 PM
What makes you think they aren't?
Even if they aren't, I imagine margin is low enough that it's hurting their overall profitability.
And it's not just about the margin. The Fusion has lost 1/3 or ~100K sales in the last 2 years. I just realized the Focus has had negative sales growth every year since the Mk3 came out in 2012 (in the US). How bad does Ford have to let things get before you guys feel they would be justified in cancelling these cars and deploying those resources elsewhere?
Garbage transmissions, and associated Consumer Reports "avoid" ratings, have likely hurt the current Focus more than anything.
Fusion is an old model. It received a very minor facelift for 2017. That sales are declining should surprise no one.
Quote from: MX793 on April 26, 2018, 01:20:06 PM
Fusion is an old model. It received a very minor facelift for 2017. That sales are declining should surprise no one.
US car sales volumes have been declining for 30 years. It's not something as simple or fixable as where the fusion is in its refresh cycle.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 01:22:32 PM
US car sales volumes have been declining for 30 years. It's not something as simple or fixable as where the fusion is in its refresh cycle.
The age of the model reflects why it's particular sales have recently fallen off faster than the segment as a whole. Weather vs climate...
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 12:44:23 PM
This makes no sense.... for the last 20 years, Ford has struggled with sedans and thrived on trucks/SUVs in the US. The only things that have changed are that those trucks/SUVs get livable fuel economy, and Ford is finally willing to make profit, rather than market share, a priority. Market presence is worthless if it comes at the expense of profit.
Ford succeeds in the truck market because virtually all of the competition is domestic and hence they can get away with lazy designs and questionable quality while charging a boatload. That will eventually change. Ford will eventually need to be competitive - assuming the truck market doesn't get destroyed.
The SUV market is already saturated with competition and will only get worse. Unless they fix their real issue (not producing desirable vehicles) they will be selling SUVs with massive discounts to move them.
Quote from: MX793 on April 26, 2018, 01:26:59 PM
The age of the model reflects why it's particular sales have recently fallen off faster than the segment as a whole. Weather vs climate...
If the overall LT secular trend is down, the segment is unprofitable, and redesigns require significant investment, why keep pouring capital into this segment?
There were several newer cars that fared worse from 2016 to 2017.... Sonata, Legacy, 6. Brand new Malibu was marginally better (-18% vs -21%). So a refresh would not save the Fusion.
I mean, every single mainstream midsizer was down in sales last year.
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/01/midsize-car-sales-america-december-2017-2017-year-end/
So we know a refresh won't work and the whole segment is facing a headwind in a growing auto market. What do you guys think Ford could do to turn these cars' sales around, profitably? There are stupid answers to this question, like "more brown diesel wagons!"
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 01:27:11 PM
Ford succeeds in the truck market because virtually all of the competition is domestic and hence they can get away with lazy designs and questionable quality while charging a boatload. That will eventually change. Ford will eventually need to be competitive - assuming the truck market doesn't get destroyed.
I don't know much about trucks, but a 5,000lb brick that can tow like 8000lbs, return 20MPG and run a low 14 second quarter mile (not at the same time- yet ;) ) is not a "lazy design". Nor is something that is recommended by CR of "questionable quality".
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 01:27:11 PMThe SUV market is already saturated with competition and will only get worse. Unless they fix their real issue (not producing desirable vehicles) they will be selling SUVs with massive discounts to move them.
Get worse how? Everyone already has an entry. More importantly Ford helped create the segment, and has built brand equity there with its continued presence. This shows in the sales and margins it has there.
As for "producing desirable vehicles"... the F150 has been the top selling vehicle in the country for years if not decades, with skyrocketing ATPs. And I'd hardly call the Focus/Fusion's competition "desirable". A mainstream Toyota is about as desirable as a washing machine. Desirability has nothing to do with success in the mainstream market.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 01:27:11 PM
Ford succeeds in the truck market because virtually all of the competition is domestic and hence they can get away with lazy designs and questionable quality while charging a boatload. That will eventually change. Ford will eventually need to be competitive - assuming the truck market doesn't get destroyed.
The SUV market is already saturated with competition and will only get worse. Unless they fix their real issue (not producing desirable vehicles) they will be selling SUVs with massive discounts to move them.
Right, Toyota, Nissan, Honda aren't in the truck, SUV, or CUV markets where F is profitable.
Trucks, SUVs, and CUVs are more profitable than passenger cars across the board. They are growing (whereas cars are declining) on a total industry basis, not just Ford.
Not sure what your point or your solution is. F hasn't been able to consistently make money in cars for decades, that this is some kind of short term decision that will come back to haunt them is a position you have not successfully provided any supporting arguments for.
Quote from: HurricaneSteve on April 26, 2018, 12:47:56 PM
I think it depends on how you determine "better". The auto transmissions alone put the Fiesta & Focus by default towards the bottom since they're ticking time bombs and for that reason alone I've steered friends and family away from them. Yes the transmission is just one component but a big one and a car isn't any good if it can't move.
Woah. It's been a while. How have you been?
Who the heck is Hurricane Steve? I have a buddy named Steve for whom that name would make perfect sense, but. :lol:
I wonder if legal payouts for the power shift transmission hurt Ford.
With payouts and warranty replacements, that must have had to eat into Focus and Fiesta profitability.
Well it all ultimately comes out of the same pot. I don't think 2017 Focus losses count against 2018 Focus profits. It sounded like they were moving to a regular 8AT, but now who knows.
One problem with the mainstream sedans is that they're all so huge now. The "midsizers" are all full-size now. My mom got a Cruze that has the same interior space as her old Mazda6. The Malibu was out of the question because of its size.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on April 26, 2018, 02:31:03 PM
One problem with the mainstream sedans is that they're all so huge now. The "midsizers" are all full-size now. My mom got a Cruze that has the same interior space as her old Mazda6. The Malibu was out of the question because of its size.
Couldn't agree more. I don't feel like my Golf is a small car in the slightest. I feel like the current A3/S3 is about the same size as the A4/S4 from 3 generations ago. I think someone here posted a picture of a newish Civic (last gen) next to an Accord from the early 90's and the Civic appeared to be the larger car.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on April 26, 2018, 02:31:03 PM
One problem with the mainstream sedans is that they're all so huge now. The "midsizers" are all full-size now. My mom got a Cruze that has the same interior space as her old Mazda6. The Malibu was out of the question because of its size.
Agreed. Same thing goes for trucks. Those new Colo-Canyons are huge.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 01:44:04 PM
I don't know much about trucks, but a 5,000lb brick that can tow like 8000lbs, return 20MPG and run a low 14 second quarter mile (not at the same time- yet ;) ) is not a "lazy design". Nor is something that is recommended by CR of "questionable quality".
Get worse how? Everyone already has an entry. More importantly Ford helped create the segment, and has built brand equity there with its continued presence. This shows in the sales and margins it has there.
As for "producing desirable vehicles"... the F150 has been the top selling vehicle in the country for years if not decades, with skyrocketing ATPs. And I'd hardly call the Focus/Fusion's competition "desirable". A mainstream Toyota is about as desirable as a washing machine. Desirability has nothing to do with success in the mainstream market.
The truck market design wise has been completely stagnant for 20+ years. There is no real competition from outside of Detroit in the full size market. All it is year after year is bigger and more obnoxious design.
The more everyone runs to the SUV market the more Ford will need to compete on design and execution. "Cut and run" strategy is not going to work in the future when it's now your only market. They need to find a way to distinguish their brand/cars and their inability to do so is exactly why they have to sell cars for a loss.
Nothing about leaving the car segment fixes the above.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 11:35:07 AM
$187k for the gt3rs
I was talking about the GT2rs.
https://www.porsche.com/usa/models/911/911-gt2-rs/911-gt2-rs/
Hopefully Enterprise will buy more Hyundai's and Nissan's then. If I never have to work on another Ford car again I'll be a happy man.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 03:06:42 PM
The truck market design wise has been completely stagnant for 20+ years. There is no real competition from outside of Detroit in the full size market. All it is year after year is bigger and more obnoxious design.
Stagnant by what metrics exactly? What don't trucks do better today than 20 years ago?
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 03:06:42 PMThe more everyone runs to the SUV market the more Ford will need to compete on design and execution. "Cut and run" strategy is not going to work in the future when it's now your only market. They need to find a way to distinguish their brand/cars and their inability to do so is exactly why they have to sell cars for a loss.
"The more everyone runs to the SUV market"? What mainstream automaker doesn't have a 2 and 3 row crossover? "Distignuish their brand/cars"? What is distinguishable about Toyotas/Hondas/Nissans etc. (i.e. the volume players)?
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 03:06:42 PM
Nothing about leaving the car segment fixes the above.
Nothing above reflects reality or has to do with Ford's problems.
Quote from: Gotta-Qik-C6 on April 26, 2018, 03:15:38 PM
I was talking about the GT2rs.
https://www.porsche.com/usa/models/911/911-gt2-rs/911-gt2-rs/
My point was the 3 also decimates the Vette
I wonder if the Focus Active will be classified as a light truck
Actually, there have been significant improvements in light truck design in the last few years, mostly relating to fuel efficiency and safety.
But does everybody need a truck or SUV?
Of course not. The SUV/CUV thing is a fad- cars will return.
Quote from: shp4man on April 27, 2018, 05:17:16 PM
Actually, there have been significant improvements in light truck design in the last few years, mostly relating to fuel efficiency and safety.
But does everybody need a truck or SUV?
Of course not. The SUV/CUV thing is a fad- cars will return.
Passenger cars have been in decline since the mid 80s. How many decades does it take to make it not a fad?
Quote from: shp4man on April 27, 2018, 05:17:16 PM
Actually, there have been significant improvements in light truck design in the last few years, mostly relating to fuel efficiency and safety.
But does everybody need a truck or SUV?
Of course not. The SUV/CUV thing is a fad- cars will return.
shippy's great great grandpa in 191: "the car thing is a fad- horses will return" :fogey: :lol:
New car purchases are rarely based on need. If they were, average transaction prices would be a lot lower.
Out of the top-6 best selling Fords, 3 are sedans and none is the Mustang.
Yes, SUVs have grown in market share, but sedans still sell in huge numbers, and there is no reason to think the category will ever go away completely. :huh:
I had this thought some time ago, and now it seems further reinforced. With increased emphasis on "crossover" tall wagons/hatches, it feels to me like passenger vehicle design is reverting back to the sort of basic vehicle shapes we had in the late 1930s through 1940s. Taller, slab-sided vehicles with upright seating positions. Basically, modern interpretations of this:
(http://www.txtransportationmuseum.org/photos/col-chev-1938/1938-chevrolet-sedan-03.jpg)
One of my least favorite eras of automotive styling...
Quote from: Tave on April 28, 2018, 06:54:59 AM
Out of the top-6 best selling Fords, 3 are sedans and none is the Mustang.
Yes, SUVs have grown in market share, but sedans still sell in huge numbers, and there is no reason to think the category will ever go away completely. :huh:
Did anyone say the category would go away completely?
What has been said is Ford (and GM and Chrysler) doesn't seem capable of consistently making money in the segment, and hasn't for some time. If they can't do so at a ~17mm SAAR what does that say for their through the cycle returns?
Quote from: Lebowski on April 28, 2018, 07:33:43 AM
Did anyone say the category would go away completely?
Yes, sporty said "no one buys sedans anymore" or some variation thereof about twenty times in this thread.
QuoteWhat has been said is Ford (and GM and Chrysler) doesn't seem capable of consistently making money in the segment, and hasn't for some time. If they can't do so at a ~17mm SAAR what does that say for their through the cycle returns?
If Ford is failing to make money selling cars, the solution is to fix that problem, not to stop selling cars, because selling cars is Ford's
raison d'etre.We've seen this played out before: in the 90s Ford devoted all its energy into the Explorer and F-Series, failed to develop an adequate successor to the Taurus, dragged its feet on bringing over the Mondeo until it was already outdated, etc... Continuing to ignore this market is doubling-down on the type of bad thinking that put them in this situation. It also doesn't help that Ford's competitors received massive gov't bailouts 10-years ago and we're starting to see the ripples of that intervention play out in the marketplace.
Quote from: Tave on April 28, 2018, 08:56:44 AM
Yes, sporty said "no one buys sedans anymore" or some variation thereof about twenty times in this thread.
I don't think he meant literally, not one car will be sold.
Quote
If Ford is failing to make money selling cars, the solution is to fix that problem, not to stop selling cars, because selling cars is Ford's raison d'etre.
Do you think they just haven't tried? Do you think GM and Chrysler just haven't tried? The D3 seem consistently unable to be profitable in passenger cars. Even the players that are profitable, exceptionally well run companies like Toyota with structural advantages compared to the D3, have low margins in cars and in some cases lose money in small cars.
Raison d'etre according to who, you? Why not cut to the chase and say you'd have their raison d'etre be to consistently lose money?
Quote
We've seen this played out before: in the 90s Ford devoted all its energy into the Explorer and F-Series, failed to develop an adequate successor to the Taurus, dragged its feet on bringing over the Mondeo until it was already outdated, etc... Continuing to ignore this market is doubling-down on the type of bad thinking that put them in this situation. It also doesn't help that Ford's competitors received massive gov't bailouts 10-years ago and we're starting to see the ripples of that intervention play out in the marketplace.
Exiting a market is not the same thing as competing in that market unsuccessfully, so no, we haven't seen this before at least not for F. Plus the SUV/CUV market is a lot different today than then.
It can be summed up like this (and nothing I've said contradicts this)
Ford exists to make money
Ford cannot make money on sedans in the US right now
Ergo,
Ford should probably not sell sedans in the US right now.
All the arguments I've heard against this are either emotional ("I hate crossovers :cry:" ) or demonstrably false ("expensive gas makes people avoid high riders!"). Ford is in uncharted territory. Let's sit back and see what happens.
Quote from: MX793 on April 28, 2018, 07:05:26 AM
I had this thought some time ago, and now it seems further reinforced. With increased emphasis on "crossover" tall wagons/hatches, it feels to me like passenger vehicle design is reverting back to the sort of basic vehicle shapes we had in the late 1930s through 1940s. Taller, slab-sided vehicles with upright seating positions. Basically, modern interpretations of this:
(http://www.txtransportationmuseum.org/photos/col-chev-1938/1938-chevrolet-sedan-03.jpg)
One of my least favorite eras of automotive styling...
Nice old Chevy....'38 was a good year. ;)
Quote from: shp4man on April 28, 2018, 03:22:05 PM
Nice old Chevy....'38 was a good year. ;)
Good year? For who, lol. Were you even alive?
This is really kind of a bold, crazy thing to do it seems, but if they've tried for this long and can't seem to make money doing it, I don't blame them. I'm not too heart broken. Nothing they made that they're cancelling really interested me.
Honestly, I'm shocked Toyota hasn't taken over the truck market at this point. I like the tundra a lot, just surprised the big 3 still own this category. I figured Toyota would make bigger advances here than they have.
Here is the truck market, in a nutshell:
(https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/rr3/images/e/ec/Imgstickers-bad-boy-calvin-pee-on-ford.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20180302173404)
Toyota went after minds in a market that thinks with (truck) nuts
The Tundra isn't as good as the GM, Ford, or even the Chrysler.
Honestly....why is the Mustang still around?
It's a bespoke platform, and Ford incentives the hell out of it to get it to move.
The Fiesta, Focus, and Fusion all have chassis and parts commonalities with their more profitable CUV bretheren. There's no Mustang CUV. The high-dollar Mustangs are probably more profitable, but I suspect a 2.3L or 3.7L Mustang is also pretty low.
Yet and still: Ford offers a lot of incentives in Europe, too. Although in the EU, the Focus and the Fiesta are in the top 10 best sellers, 2017's sales numbers were only ~500K. The EU Mondeo only sold 68K last year.
We've been selling as many car shaped things (and bigger cars like the Fusion) roughly as Europe (not counting the umpteen MPV's Ford has). Yet, Ford axed our product line. But Ford doesn't have Lincoln, or trucks like the F150 that sell in droves in the European market.
Well I'll be a son of a gun. Fusions are 25% off.... and so are the new Ecoboost Mustangs. From multiple dealers. Ford is in bad shape
Thing is though - as families grow and change, a lot of people like staying within brands.
Will Focus owners, who likely will now have shit residuals, will they want to take a look at an Escape?
Would older people who don't want an Edge anymore, there's no Fusion or Focus for them to look at?
I personally loved the Fiesta, despite it's flaws. Ford doesn't make a vehicle I want anymore.
I can't see how the UAW affected this either; the Fusion was made in MI, but the Fiesta and Focus were imported from Mexico. What about Mexico? Are they gonna concede Latin America, too? (Likely)
I don't see how an EU 1.25L Fiesta Studio 3-door hatch is somehow profitable. Ford sells 250K a year of the Fiesta and Focus, and I can't picture the EU market being somehow more profitable.
----------------------------
I also wonder if Ford's reluctance to modular platforms also is a big problem. The latest EU Fiesta is a heavy restyle of the current US one, which in turn was a big restyle of the car introduced in (2002?).
The Focus III's chassis I think is a heavy refresh of the Focus II, which in turn was the Focus I's chassis reworked with input from Volvo and Mazda. In fact, the 5MT in the 2.0L Focus is actually the same exact transmission from the 2000 MK1 ZETEC Focus.
VW's MQB and MLB architecture is simple and easy to make varying body shapes around a set of easily interchangable parts. Honda, Toyota, PSA, and even GM are going this way. Ford? They have a few things, and they supposedly have a big car unibody chassis for the next Explorer and Lincoln Aviator, but I haven't seen or heard them developing an MQB or TNGA style modular chassis for Small to Medium sized cars.
Man, Ford isn't even doing all that well in Mexico, either. Only moved 81K units last year.
Compared to Nissan moving 365K units.
Guess what, Canadians!
Ya'll won't even be getting the Focus Active.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 28, 2018, 08:54:23 PM
Honestly....why is the Mustang still around?
I imagine this was a branding decision ("Ford can't kill the mustang!"), not that the mustang is somehow more profitable than the rest of their car lineup. I imagine the Ford family (which still exerts considerable influence) in particular would be loathe to let the mustang go.
Well, Ford kills the car. And yet, people call me an alarmist for saying the car is dead. This is the least happy I've been about being proved right. Cars are dead.
If you all would just stop buying CRVs already!! :lol:
Quote from: 2o6 on April 28, 2018, 11:54:06 PM
Guess what, Canadians!
Ya'll won't even be getting the Focus Active.
That's pretty crazy. Will they get some similar car?
Quote from: Rich on April 29, 2018, 06:00:41 AM
That's pretty crazy. Will they get some similar car?
No.
Canada will only have the Mustang.
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 10:39:19 AM
and the $120k dinosaur got it's ass kicked by a German flat 6 at the 'ring... Boo hoo
Fake news.
https://www.torquenews.com/106/2019-corvette-zr1-runs-712-nurburgring-spectators
None of those are official numbers, just what some car spotters claim they saw around turn 13 while they were testing and made it into the news somehow. What the final times will be will likely be very different. Considering independent sources (Sport Auto) can get the C7 Z06 around the ring in 7:13, which has much less downforce and power, everyone expects the official time to be very different.
Also according to the Bridge to Gantry site which is where this story comes from, Porsche has been testing there all month with industry exclusive test times:
https://www.bridgetogantry.com/porsche-991-2-gt3rs-laps-ring-under-7mins-corvette-zr1-disappoints-with-way-over-7mins/
"First to the table was Porsche Motorsport with the bright green Weissach-package'd GT3RS 991.2
that has been terrorising the industry test sessions all month."
Whereas the ZR1 did only 1-2 runs.
"
After Porsche had their exclusive tracktime, Chevrolet took over the whole Nordschleife
for a run or two"
Chevy probably had no intention of setting a record time with only 1-2 runs.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 28, 2018, 10:10:17 AM
I don't think he meant literally, not one car will be sold.
I realize that, it fails as hyperbole too. Out of the top-10 selling models in the US last year, 4 were mainstream sedans while only 3 were SUVs or CUVs (with the remainder being the Ram/F/Silverado trio).
QuoteDo you think they just haven't tried? Do you think GM and Chrysler just haven't tried? The D3 seem consistently unable to be profitable in passenger cars. Even the players that are profitable, exceptionally well run companies like Toyota with structural advantages compared to the D3, have low margins in cars and in some cases lose money in small cars.
Raison d'etre according to who, you? Why not cut to the chase and say you'd have their raison d'etre be to consistently lose money?
According to Henry Ford for starters. We're talking about the company that literally invented the concept of an automobile for the masses.
QuoteExiting a market is not the same thing as competing in that market unsuccessfully, so no, we haven't seen this before at least not for F. Plus the SUV/CUV market is a lot different today than then.
If Ford can't compete with the Accord and Camry, it won't be able to compete with the RAV4 and CRV either. This is the first step along the road of turning Ford into RAM. Take your logic to its ultimate conclusion and they may as well only sell the F-Series and Mustang. :huh:
Quote from: 2o6 on April 28, 2018, 09:19:22 PM
Thing is though - as families grow and change, a lot of people like staying within brands.
Will Focus owners, who likely will now have shit residuals
Why would people have a lot of brand loyalty if the residuals are shit?
Quote from: 2o6 on April 28, 2018, 08:34:47 PM
The Tundra isn't as good as the GM, Ford, or even the Chrysler.
Uhhh. :nutty:
GM is my go-to for full size truck, but I'd way rather have a Tundra over a RAM. Or even a Ford. What is this opinion based on? Have you driven all of them? Tundras are incredibly nice trucks.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 28, 2018, 08:06:33 PM
Here is the truck market, in a nutshell:
(https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/rr3/images/e/ec/Imgstickers-bad-boy-calvin-pee-on-ford.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20180302173404)
Toyota went after minds in a market that thinks with (truck) nuts
From outlawdecalz.net
(https://goo.gl/images/NQq51A)
Quote from: Tave on April 29, 2018, 08:48:53 AM
According to Henry Ford for starters. We're talking about the company that literally invented the concept of an automobile for the masses.
:huh: SUVs, CUVs, and pickups aren't automobiles now? Hell, the model T more closely resembles an SUV/CUV than modern sedans to me.
Quote
If Ford can't compete with the Accord and Camry, it won't be able to compete with the RAV4 and CRV either. This is the first step along the road of turning Ford into RAM. Take your logic to its ultimate conclusion and they may as well only sell the F-Series and Mustang. :huh:
Ford makes money in segments other than passengers cars. They lose money in passenger cars. How many loss making products does Ford need to keep producing in order to keep you satisfied? My position is simply don't be in business lines you can't be profitable in, feel free to take that to its logical conclusion to your hearts content.
Escape might not beat the CRV in comparison tests but they seem to be able to make money in that segment. This isn't new and isn't unique to Ford - SUVs, CUVs, and trucks are higher margin than cars across the board, including for manufacturers that can turn a (slim in most cases) profit in cars.
Mid sized cars not turning a profit sounds like a Ford problem.
I could see the fiesta and maybe the focus having thin margins. But the Fusion? How?
Quote from: 2o6 on April 28, 2018, 08:54:23 PM
Honestly....why is the Mustang still around?
It's a bespoke platform, and Ford incentives the hell out of it to get it to move.
The Fiesta, Focus, and Fusion all have chassis and parts commonalities with their more profitable CUV bretheren. There's no Mustang CUV. The high-dollar Mustangs are probably more profitable, but I suspect a 2.3L or 3.7L Mustang is also pretty low.
Yet and still: Ford offers a lot of incentives in Europe, too. Although in the EU, the Focus and the Fiesta are in the top 10 best sellers, 2017's sales numbers were only ~500K. The EU Mondeo only sold 68K last year.
We've been selling as many car shaped things (and bigger cars like the Fusion) roughly as Europe (not counting the umpteen MPV's Ford has). Yet, Ford axed our product line. But Ford doesn't have Lincoln, or trucks like the F150 that sell in droves in the European market.
I've said it before, in the NA market Ford thinks they have the loyalty of their buyers to follow them into more expensive CUVs if they want them or not. It's the same lazy attitude that had the big 3 consistently producing lackluster cars.
Quote from: 565 on April 29, 2018, 07:43:37 AM
Fake news.
https://www.torquenews.com/106/2019-corvette-zr1-runs-712-nurburgring-spectators
None of those are official numbers, just what some car spotters claim they saw around turn 13 while they were testing and made it into the news somehow. What the final times will be will likely be very different. Considering independent sources (Sport Auto) can get the C7 Z06 around the ring in 7:13, which has much less downforce and power, everyone expects the official time to be very different.
Also according to the Bridge to Gantry site which is where this story comes from, Porsche has been testing there all month with industry exclusive test times:
https://www.bridgetogantry.com/porsche-991-2-gt3rs-laps-ring-under-7mins-corvette-zr1-disappoints-with-way-over-7mins/
"First to the table was Porsche Motorsport with the bright green Weissach-package'd GT3RS 991.2 that has been terrorising the industry test sessions all month."
Whereas the ZR1 did only 1-2 runs.
"After Porsche had their exclusive tracktime, Chevrolet took over the whole Nordschleife for a run or two"
Chevy probably had no intention of setting a record time with only 1-2 runs.
Actually not fake news. The ZR1 aero package has too much drag which killed it's time. GM actually gave Porsche track time. Porsche put down a sub 7 minute run in it's first lap. Chevy went out after that and failed - miserably
Quote from: r0tor on April 29, 2018, 11:06:08 AM
I've said it before, in the NA market Ford thinks they have the loyalty of their buyers to follow them into more expensive CUVs if they want them or not. It's the same lazy attitude that had the big 3 consistently producing lackluster cars.
I think it's weird that this time around, GM has a line of decent small cars. The Sonic will sadly die, but the Spark, Cruze, and Malibu are actually competitive vehicles.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 29, 2018, 09:59:35 AM
:huh: SUVs, CUVs, and pickups aren't automobiles now? Hell, the model T more closely resembles an SUV/CUV than modern sedans to me.
Cars took over when roads actually became roads...
Quote from: r0tor on April 29, 2018, 11:12:36 AM
Cars took over when roads actually became roads...
Must be nice to live where roads actually resemble roads.
Which are quickly turning into not roads
Quote from: r0tor on April 29, 2018, 11:12:36 AM
Cars took over when roads actually became roads...
What does that have to do with some imaginary Henry Ford quote about a raison d'etre?
Quote from: r0tor on April 29, 2018, 11:09:31 AM
Actually not fake news. The ZR1 aero package has too much drag which killed it's time. GM actually gave Porsche track time. Porsche put down a sub 7 minute run in it's first lap. Chevy went out after that and failed - miserably
Where is your source?
Quote from: Submariner on April 29, 2018, 09:50:17 AM
From outlawdecalz.net
(https://goo.gl/images/NQq51A)
I have it bookmarked.
I was digging around to see what Ford prices were looking like. Encountered this, not surprising.
(https://i.imgur.com/kgQOUig.png)
Here's what was though:
(https://i.imgur.com/xyKp3O5.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/XVAKQnW.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/7b6Gh3A.png)
It's all bad. Ford's whole lineup is in trouble. What is the point of MSRPs?
Gives executives and product planners the comfy comfy illusion of competitiveness.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 29, 2018, 01:46:11 PM
I have it bookmarked.
I was digging around to see what Ford prices were looking like. Encountered this, not surprising.
(https://i.imgur.com/kgQOUig.png)
Here's what was though:
(https://i.imgur.com/xyKp3O5.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/XVAKQnW.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/7b6Gh3A.png)
It's all bad. Ford's whole lineup is in trouble. What is the point of MSRPs?
Everyone has ads like this. Many of them have "MSRPs" that actually include the delivery, dealer prep, admin charges, etc. Then they list a price without those add-ons to make it look like they're having some kind of big sale.
Nah, I was at the Ford dealer last week. They're offering incentives on basically every car they sell. Those prices are likely accurate.
Yea its multiple dealers across the city. I don't think it's a rope and dope.
I have felt like there were too many brands/offerings in the market for a while now, but I never thought a company like Ford would be pushed out. Mazda, Mitsubishi, maybe even Nissan. But Ford? They have the midwest on lock. I hope this isn't a macroeconomic canary in the coal mine.
MSRP hasn't been a thing with cars for a while, like virtually any mass produced product, it seems.
Quote from: 565 on April 29, 2018, 11:54:56 AM
Where is your source?
The real source is the time... You either have it or not
But anyway... https://carbuzz.com/news/chevrolet-helped-the-porsche-911-gt3-rs-set-amazing-nurburgring-time
Quote from: giant_mtb on April 29, 2018, 06:17:20 PM
MSRP hasn't been a thing with cars for a while, like virtually any mass produced product, it seems.
Honda and Toyota often transact at MSRP (or close to it)
Vehicles are one of those things that almost never sell for MSRP, save for brands with no-haggle policies (not sure there are any left, that was a hallmark of Scion and Saturn, both defunct). Even then, if the brand is offering some kind of rebate or whatever, you'll pay less than MSRP. Special brands or models excluded.
Quote from: MX793 on April 29, 2018, 06:41:38 PM
Vehicles are one of those things that almost never sell for MSRP, save for brands with no-haggle policies (not sure there are any left, that was a hallmark of Scion and Saturn, both defunct). Even then, if the brand is offering some kind of rebate or whatever, you'll pay less than MSRP. Special brands or models excluded.
Those brands and the JC Penney debacle a few years ago mean people want to feel like they "got a deal!" by paying less than the marked price, even if they know the marked price is too high.
It's one thing to sell like 5-10% under MSRP. We are talking 20-25% across the board with Ford.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on April 29, 2018, 07:41:46 PM
Those brands and the JC Penney debacle a few years ago mean people want to feel like they "got a deal!" by paying less than the marked price, even if they know the marked price is too high.
Same with college tuition + scholarships.
The D3 going back as far as I can remember have always had a different pricing strategy than most of the imports esp the better run ones like Honda and Toyota. The domestics generally have a wider gap between msrp and transaction prices and more reliance on discounts. The Honda/Toyota strategy makes more sense to me but they are also better managed companies with better brand management and not beholden to the UAW and the cost and capacity disadvantages that go along with that. The D3 also have historically had too many dealers, which further complicates pricing.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 28, 2018, 04:43:14 PM
Good year? For who, lol. Were you even alive?
For Chevies dude.
Quote from: MX793 on April 29, 2018, 06:41:38 PM
Vehicles are one of those things that almost never sell for MSRP, save for brands with no-haggle policies (not sure there are any left, that was a hallmark of Scion and Saturn, both defunct). Even then, if the brand is offering some kind of rebate or whatever, you'll pay less than MSRP. Special brands or models excluded.
I think Tesla.
And of course with premium brands like Ferrari, the negotiation is over how much above MSRP you'll pay.
So with Ford killing the Fiesta and replacing the Focus with the CUV-ized (and upmarked) Focus Active, the cheapest MSRP for an entry level Ford will be the EcoSport, which starts at 20K. Meanwhile, the Japanese and Koreans have subcompact segment vehicles in the mid-teens and even their compact segment vehicles starting south of 20k. Recognize that Ford's don't sell at MSRP, but maybe they should consider just dropping their MSRP and cutting back on the special offers.
Quote from: MX793 on April 30, 2018, 06:17:10 AM
So with Ford killing the Fiesta and replacing the Focus with the CUV-ized (and upmarked) Focus Active, the cheapest MSRP for an entry level Ford will be the EcoSport, which starts at 20K. Meanwhile, the Japanese and Koreans have subcompact segment vehicles in the mid-teens and even their compact segment vehicles starting south of 20k. Recognize that Ford's don't sell at MSRP, but maybe they should consider just dropping their MSRP and cutting back on the special offers.
I do think lower MSRPs and less incentives would make for better marketing, resale and overall image. The JCPenney strategy is expensive in the long run.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 30, 2018, 07:39:21 AM
I do think lower MSRPs and less incentives would make for better marketing, resale and overall image. The JCPenney strategy is expensive in the long run.
But selling your brand on image/quality/ longevity/ value in the long run is better than "CHEAP!"
The D3 could slowly transition towards a more Asian sales strategy, but doubt they will.
I grew up in Fords and more Fords but my Parents have a Pilot, Civic, and Ranger in the driveway. The last one is because dad got it cheap about 3 years back, and won't be able to replace it with another when it dies. I have a Honda & Subaru, after having spent a lot on repairing my Fords and Grand Caravan..
Quote from: CaminoRacer on April 29, 2018, 07:52:57 PM
Same with college tuition + scholarships.
good point. Nothing like moving the shells around.
Quote from: MX793 on April 30, 2018, 06:17:10 AM
So with Ford killing the Fiesta and replacing the Focus with the CUV-ized (and upmarked) Focus Active, the cheapest MSRP for an entry level Ford will be the EcoSport, which starts at 20K. Meanwhile, the Japanese and Koreans have subcompact segment vehicles in the mid-teens and even their compact segment vehicles starting south of 20k. Recognize that Ford's don't sell at MSRP, but maybe they should consider just dropping their MSRP and cutting back on the special offers.
Not to mention, Canada won't get the Focus Active.
Looks like Ford Canada won't have a car that breaks 30MPG freeway.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 30, 2018, 07:39:21 AM
I do think lower MSRPs and less incentives would make for better marketing, resale and overall image. The JCPenney strategy is expensive in the long run.
The delta from MSRP is a function of their poor forecasting for the most part. Domestics put high MSRPs there in hopes that the model's popularity takes off and they can sell close to MSRP. More often than not, they need to put massive incentives out there to move enough to help cover the fixed costs. The better you are with forecasting, the better you can price your MSRP.
Also, consumers are dumb. They love thinking they got a good deal upfront. More often than not, an Accord at MSRP will end up costing less per mile than most equivalent domestics.
Some kids in my high school in the '70s were driving '30s era Chevys. They were slow and wallowed around corners, but were still reliable after 30 years of use. Plus, they featured an advanced ;) overhead valve 6 cylinder engine. Pushing them over 80MPH, however, was not recommended, as the ancient babbit bearing stovebolt engines could come apart at high RPM. :lol:
This "death of sedans" thing is just a fad. Mark my words.
Nobody keeps a car for 30 years anymore, unless it's something like a Ferrari F40. Building cars to that standard is wasteful and pointless.
FWIW our 6 year Ford has been holding up OK over the last year. Admittedly Ford really shit on itself with fuel economy, My Ford Touch 2 and those awful DCTs in the Fiesta/Focus.... but if you can live with some gas guzzling and avoid all that other shit they seem as well built as anything Asian. Ford is just facing a shitload of headwinds, even with competitive cars. It's a brutal market
I feel like ford powertrain combos are notorious for not getting close to the sticker MPG. GM is hit or miss, and the Asian brands are usually right on (namely Honda and Toyota) but Ford always loses. Even the hybrids suck.
Had a lot of Fords in my family and they've all met or exceeded EPA mpg. At least with traditional (non-hybrid) powertrains.
Yea, our Focus gets much better than epa
Can you imagine if the next Trump backlash election if the new regime would be focused on environmental issues and increase gas taxes and cafe standards - Ford is toast
Quote from: r0tor on April 30, 2018, 10:08:54 AM
Can you imagine if the next Trump backlash election if the new regime would be focused on environmental issues and increase gas taxes and cafe standards - Ford is toast
A punitive gas take hike would go over like a lead Zeppelin, and truck/crossover sales were undeterred by the ~4 year stretch of ~$3.65/gallon gas after the recession. Ford would be worse off to continue dedicating expensive American manufacturing capacity and capital to building and selling low margin cars at 20-25% off MSRP.
MKX gets 19MPG on the nose. City or highway, doesn't matter. Not bad for what it is
Do the Ecoboost motor do ok? Everyone who I knows that has one is routinely disappointed in how mediocre the actual fuel economy is.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 30, 2018, 10:17:29 AM
A punitive gas take hike would go over like a lead Zeppelin, and truck/crossover sales were undeterred by the ~4 year stretch of ~$3.65/gallon gas after the recession. Ford would be worse off to continue dedicating expensive American manufacturing capacity and capital to building and selling low margin cars at 20-25% off MSRP.
During the recession F150 sales tanked almost 50%
Quote from: 2o6 on April 30, 2018, 10:41:02 AM
Do the Ecoboost motor do ok? Everyone who I knows that has one is routinely disappointed in how mediocre the actual fuel economy is.
I believe my brother's F150 meets EPA mileage with the EB3.5. I've only ever heard him praise the fuel economy.
Quote from: r0tor on April 30, 2018, 10:41:20 AM
During the recession F150 sales tanked almost 50%
During the recession the whole auto industry tanked 50% :lol: :pee:
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 30, 2018, 10:33:06 AM
MKX gets 19MPG on the nose. City or highway, doesn't matter. Not bad for what it is
HUH?
My minivan gets 16/25. The poor city is my fault, I could definitely get it up to 19.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 30, 2018, 11:22:53 AM
During the recession the whole auto industry tanked 50% :lol: :pee:
Focus sales spiked 10-20%
Quote from: r0tor on April 30, 2018, 01:04:16 PM
Focus sales spiked 10-20%
In 08 when gas shot up to $4 pre-recession, yea. Then when the recession hit in 09 they dropped 20% like the rest of the industry. Keep in mind this was the end of that generation so god knows what the discounts were like.
Mk3 debuted in 2012 providing another spike.... and sales shrank every year since, despite gas in the ~$3.50 range for the first 3 years of it being on the market. Compare that to the Escape, which saw sales increase from the Mk3's debut in the US all the way up to last year- again right up through that same ~$3.50 gas stretch
Again just to put a ribbon on it- Recession = Focus sales down 20% (like everyone else). $3.50 gas = brand new Focus sales tanked, Escape sales soared. So what conditions do you see the Focus rebounding?
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/ford-focus-sales-figures/
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/ford-escape-sales-figures/
Truck sales tanked when gas priced surged. Small car sales surged. Truck sales took 5 years to recover after people got jobs and $3+ gas was considered the new norm.
No reason to think this doesn't happen again.. andnsoon
Truck sales did not tank during the second sustained surge. They.....picked up. [/Ray Caruso]
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/chevrolet-silverado-sales-figures/
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/ford-f-series-sales-figures/
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/dodge-ram-sales-figures/
OTHER small car sales surged, but the Focus sales fell. So again I ask. With history as our guide showing that Focus sales fell during ideal conditions for small car sales, what makes you think it will be different this time?
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 30, 2018, 09:53:41 AM
Nobody keeps a car for 30 years anymore, unless it's something like a Ferrari F40. Building cars to that standard is wasteful and pointless.
FWIW our 6 year Ford has been holding up OK over the last year. Admittedly Ford really shit on itself with fuel economy, My Ford Touch 2 and those awful DCTs in the Fiesta/Focus.... but if you can live with some gas guzzling and avoid all that other shit they seem as well built as anything Asian. Ford is just facing a shitload of headwinds, even with competitive cars. It's a brutal market
How is it wasteful and pointless? People don't keep cars for 30 years anymore because we've decided that cars are disposable commodities that need to be replaced as often as our phones. If cars were still built for longevity, they'd still be owned for long periods of time. But selling someone a car that lasts dozens of years isn't profitable.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 30, 2018, 06:51:47 PM
Truck sales did not tank during the second sustained surge. They.....picked up. [/Ray Caruso]
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/chevrolet-silverado-sales-figures/
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/ford-f-series-sales-figures/
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/dodge-ram-sales-figures/
OTHER small car sales surged, but the Focus sales fell. So again I ask. With history as our guide showing that Focus sales fell during ideal conditions for small car sales, what makes you think it will be different this time?
The highest gas priced were in 2008-2009. The same year of the worse f150 sales in 30 years
Quote from: Raza on May 01, 2018, 05:12:16 AM
How is it wasteful and pointless? People don't keep cars for 30 years anymore because we've decided that cars are disposable commodities that need to be replaced as often as our phones. If cars were still built for longevity, they'd still be owned for long periods of time. But selling someone a car that lasts dozens of years isn't profitable.
Not sure why you are knocking this mentality... how long have you kept each of your cars for? ~3-4 years?
Cars were built to that 30 year standard. Old Benzes and Toyotas. People on average still didn't keep them for more than like 7-8 years tops. Plus cars ARE getting better built. The average age of cars on the road has been increasing steadily for decades, speaking to both the increasing durability of cars and the average person's increasing willingness to keep them. :huh:
Quote from: r0tor on May 01, 2018, 05:14:31 AM
The highest gas priced were in 2008-2009. The same year of the worse f150 sales in 30 years
Yea I'm sure that had nothing to do with the worst recession since the depression that dragged the whole industry down. Prius sales were down too.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on May 01, 2018, 05:21:55 AM
Yea I'm sure that had nothing to do with the worst recession since the depression that dragged the whole industry down. Prius sales were down too.
Yet Focus sales were up (as pointed out previously)...
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 30, 2018, 09:53:41 AM
Nobody keeps a car for 30 years anymore, unless it's something like a Ferrari F40. Building cars to that standard is wasteful and pointless.
FWIW our 6 year Ford has been holding up OK over the last year. Admittedly Ford really shit on itself with fuel economy, My Ford Touch 2 and those awful DCTs in the Fiesta/Focus.... but if you can live with some gas guzzling and avoid all that other shit they seem as well built as anything Asian. Ford is just facing a shitload of headwinds, even with competitive cars. It's a brutal market
People didn't keep cars for decades then, either. Those high schoolers in 30 year old cars certainly weren't the original owners. Maybe the 5th or 6th... I'll wager some of those cars were junkyard rescues as well.
Late 90s and early 2000s cars have great longevity. Modern engines but not nearly as many silly electronics to go bad. And very few turbo engines.
Quote from: r0tor on May 01, 2018, 05:46:58 AM
Yet Focus sales were up (as pointed out previously)...
So of the 4 years over the last 11 that gas was >$3.50, the Focus saw sales increases over 1 of them. And that was 11 years ago. Strong odds
Quote from: r0tor on May 01, 2018, 05:46:58 AM
Yet Focus sales were up (as pointed out previously)...
Ford loses money selling the Focus in the US.
Your point, even (generously) granting your volume assumptions are correct, boils down to "Ford is going to regret not having the Focus to lose money on when truck sales decline!"
Stupid.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on May 01, 2018, 08:54:18 AM
So of the 4 years over the last 11 that gas was >$3.50, the Focus saw sales increases over 1 of them. And that was 11 years ago. Strong odds
Without cars to hedge against a 2008-2009 style truck market sales cliff - Ford can be out of business in a heartbeat
Their furniture making CEO is oblivious to this
If your "hedge" loses money, what's the point?
Quote from: MrH on May 01, 2018, 09:17:00 AM
If your "hedge" loses money, what's the point?
Think of it as stock portfolio.
Market up: Cars loose 4% and trucks make 10%. Net gain is 6%.
Market down: Cars make 10% and trucks loose 15%. Net gain is -5%.
Without cars, Ford could loose 15% instead of -5% with them.
I'm not sure what the numbers are like at Ford and I'm not sure if that is a viable strategy. But that is the theoretical point.
Quote from: Submariner on May 01, 2018, 09:32:14 AM
Think of it as stock portfolio.
Market up: Cars loose 4% and trucks make 10%. Net gain is 6%.
Market down: Cars make 10% and trucks loose 15%. Net gain is -5%.
Without cars, Ford could loose 15% instead of -5% with them.
I'm not sure what the numbers are like at Ford and I'm not sure if that is a viable strategy. But that is the theoretical point.
Cars don't "make 10%" in a market down scenario, they don't make anything, they lose money for Ford. If they can't make cars profitable at a 17mm SAAR it's pure fantasy to assume they will somehow become profitable in an overall market decline.
You don't need to know what the actual numbers are - committing capital to a "hedge" that loses money in up markets and loses even more money in down markets is stupid.
GM/Ford could both save a lot of money by simplifying option sheets and reducing inventory levels.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 01, 2018, 09:38:27 AM
Cars don't "make 10%", they don't make anything, they lose money for Ford. If they can't make cars profitable at a 17mm SAAR it's pure fantasy to assume they will somehow become profitable in an overall market decline.
You don't need to know what the actual numbers are - committing capital to a "hedge" that loses money in up markets and loses even more money in down markets is stupid.
Of course if your a beancounter who doesn't realize there is no "abort" button to the plan it sounds great. But if truck demand goes down it's a decade to do the market research, design, retooling, federalizing, production and marketing to get back into the car game. The company will be toast far far before then, but the furniture maker CEO that sinks the company will undoubtedly get a beautiful golden parachute.
Quote from: r0tor on May 01, 2018, 09:44:43 AM
Of course if your a beancounter who doesn't realize there is no "abort" button to the plan it sounds great. But if truck demand goes down it's a decade to do the market research, design, retooling, federalizing, production and marketing to get back into the car game. The company will be toast far far before then, but the furniture maker CEO that sinks the company will undoubtedly get a beautiful golden parachute.
Cars lose money. If truck demand declines you're not going to save the business by losing more money in cars.
Ford's lack of profitability sounds like a Ford problrm, not a "car shapes are unprofitable" sort of rationale.
If the Focus, Fiesta, and Fusion are unprofitable, what was the point in investing in a new Focus and Fiesta?
It seems weird. If the Focus and fiesta were so damn unprofitable, I don't understand the rationale of still cont I using to sell them in Europe, where they also still likely lose money on them.
Quote from: 2o6 on May 01, 2018, 09:59:06 AM
Ford's lack of profitability sounds like a Ford problrm, not a "car shapes are unprofitable" sort of rationale.
In that case sounds like not selling cars in NA is a Ford solution.
As has been pointed out numerous times now, it's not just a Ford problem, at minimum it's a longstanding D3 problem, and even for those companies that are profitable in cars (ie J3), small mainstreamer cars are low margin.
You would be a motivating person to work work... If at first you don't succeed, give up and run away
No worries Rotor, I wouldn't hire you.
The D3 have been trying and failing to consistently make money selling passenger cars in the US for decades. If your position is "well gee maybe they just haven't tried yet" you haven't been paying attention.
What's demotivating is mgmt continuing to allocate precious capital to consistently uneconomic/unprofitable business lines.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 01, 2018, 10:40:40 AM
No worries Rotor, I wouldn't hire you.
The D3 have been trying and failing to consistently make money selling passenger cars in the US for decades. If your position is "well gee maybe they just haven't tried yet" you haven't been paying attention.
What's demotivating is mgmt continuing to allocate precious capital to consistently uneconomic/unprofitable business lines.
I can't recall a space in time where the big three didn't sell car shapes at all.
Quote from: Submariner on May 01, 2018, 09:32:14 AM
Think of it as stock portfolio.
Market up: Cars loose 4% and trucks make 10%. Net gain is 6%.
Market down: Cars make 10% and trucks loose 15%. Net gain is -5%.
Without cars, Ford could loose 15% instead of -5% with them.
I'm not sure what the numbers are like at Ford and I'm not sure if that is a viable strategy. But that is the theoretical point.
Lose* :lol:
But yeah, like Lebowski said, they don't ever make money. Not even in "up" years.
Quote from: 2o6 on May 01, 2018, 09:59:06 AM
Ford's lack of profitability sounds like a Ford problrm, not a "car shapes are unprofitable" sort of rationale.
If the Focus, Fiesta, and Fusion are unprofitable, what was the point in investing in a new Focus and Fiesta?
It seems weird. If the Focus and fiesta were so damn unprofitable, I don't understand the rationale of still cont I using to sell them in Europe, where they also still likely lose money on them.
It's not unique to Ford. The margins on cars are really, really slim. The big three have come a long way to compete with Toyota and Honda, but there's still a big gap. Plain and simple, they're competing against the King of Manufacturing. They're just not as good at it, and haven't been able to catch them. You're fighting against a company that invented the game and has a huge head start.
That's why I'm surprised Toyota hasn't also crushed in the truck market yet. I think it's partially brand perception holding them back, but also design and product planning. They'll eventually overcome these things, and then the big 3 are going to be in the same position but now with their cash cows at stake.
I would say that Ford pulling out of Latin America would have been a wiser move. But, IDK shareholders probably don't think Brazil et al aren't "Mature" and are still worth growth. It doesn't make sense to sell 500K units of a car in the EU that also likely still has thin profits. How many Focus or Fiesta Viganles are they selling? Can't be that many.
Also, doesn't the Tundra have a worse frame, less payload, less towing capacity, and weaker engines? I know back in 2006 ish, it was very clear that the Tundra was not as good as the American trucks. The Ram, F150, and Silverado are excellent trucks.
The 2000-2006 Tundras were less capable. It was fully redesigned in '07 into a bigger, more capable truck with the new 5.7L V8. IIRC, it was the most powerful half ton at the time and the 5.7 is still very competitive, though no longer class leading.
Quote from: 2o6 on May 01, 2018, 11:46:19 AM
I would say that Ford pulling out of Latin America would have been a wiser move. But, IDK shareholders probably don't think Brazil et al aren't "Mature" and are still worth growth. It doesn't make sense to sell 500K units of a car in the EU that also likely still has thin profits. How many Focus or Fiesta Viganles are they selling? Can't be that many.
Ford has said they won't rule out exiting geographic business units so it's possicle they will exit Latin America or Europe at some point. I imagine they have different timelines for turning those around.
Regardless, that they lose money elsewhere isn't justification to continue losing money indefinitely selling passenger cars in the US.
Quote from: r0tor on April 30, 2018, 06:30:54 PM
Truck sales tanked when gas priced surged. Small car sales surged. Truck sales took 5 years to recover after people got jobs and $3+ gas was considered the new norm.
No reason to think this doesn't happen again.. andnsoon
I wrote my master's paper on the effect of gas prices on vehicle purchasing decisions in the US from 2010-2014.
When controlling for economic variables, gas prices have minimal impact.
Quote from: SVT_Power on May 01, 2018, 12:32:05 PM
I wrote my master's paper on the effect of gas prices on vehicle purchasing decisions in the US from 2010-2014.
When controlling for economic variables, gas prices have minimal impact.
Wait, really? I did my econometrics project on that too. Same findings.
Quote from: SVT_Power on May 01, 2018, 12:32:05 PM
I wrote my master's paper on the effect of gas prices on vehicle purchasing decisions in the US from 2010-2014.
When controlling for economic variables, gas prices have minimal impact.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on May 01, 2018, 12:50:21 PM
Wait, really? I did my econometrics project on that too. Same findings.
Is that for short-term gas price changes? I wonder if long-term permanent price change would affect more.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on May 01, 2018, 12:50:21 PM
Wait, really? I did my econometrics project on that too. Same findings.
Aw man that sucks, we're both about to be proven wrong by r0tor's anecdotes.
Quote from: SVT_Power on May 01, 2018, 02:34:04 PM
Aw man that sucks, we're both about to be proven wrong by r0tor's anecdotes.
:lol:
Yea... This looks like a terrible correlation between fuel prices and fuel efficient car sales
(http://j469.ascjclass.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2016/10/3.png)
(http://j469.ascjclass.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2016/10/6.png)
What I see there is a seasonal component of both gas prices and small car sales. Gas prices go up in the spring/summer and car sales also go up in the summer (no one likes to browse dealerships with snow covered cars).
And the hybrid sales has a decent trend upward as more hybrid models are offered and the sections of the public demand more eco-friendly options. And there's also a seasonal component. And Q1 2011 is opposite of the prediction.
Like Ed said, has prices have some impact on consumer choice, but it's not large and there are other factors that affect things.
Hmm, did I post this before? Made this for another forum a while back.
(https://i.imgur.com/Ljc7GfK.png)
You were saying?
Quote from: Lebowski on April 29, 2018, 09:59:35 AM
:huh: SUVs, CUVs, and pickups aren't automobiles now? Hell, the model T more closely resembles an SUV/CUV than modern sedans to me.
2 of the top 3 best-selling vehicles in the world last year were the Corolla and Golf. We're talking about a vital market for mainstream manufacturers. Abandoning said market completely should be an option of absolute last resort. IMO, you're being kind of flippant here and giving the impression that you don't think it's a big deal.
QuoteFord makes money in segments other than passengers cars. They lose money in passenger cars. How many loss making products does Ford need to keep producing in order to keep you satisfied? My position is simply don't be in business lines you can't be profitable in, feel free to take that to its logical conclusion to your hearts content.
Escape might not beat the CRV in comparison tests but they seem to be able to make money in that segment. This isn't new and isn't unique to Ford - SUVs, CUVs, and trucks are higher margin than cars across the board, including for manufacturers that can turn a (slim in most cases) profit in cars.
Toyota is probably on-track to sell more Rav4s over the next 5 years than Explorers and Escapes combined. Ford is getting completely outclassed in every important segment out there other than pickups and pony cars.
And maybe they didn't have a choice. If this is a last ditch effort to throw everything and the kitchen sink out before the boat slowly burbles underneath the waves, then so be it. If the decision was at all governed by other considerations, I see huge holes.
Quote from: r0tor on May 01, 2018, 04:06:08 PM
Yea... This looks like a terrible correlation between fuel prices and fuel efficient car sales
(http://j469.ascjclass.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2016/10/3.png)
(http://j469.ascjclass.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2016/10/6.png)
LOL without even going into any kind of stats, those aren't even good examples of correlation.
At least use a convincing correlation like:
(http://www.tylervigen.com/chart-pngs/3.png)
Quote from: Tave on May 01, 2018, 05:41:05 PM
2 of the top 3 best-selling vehicles in the world last year were the Corolla and Golf.
Ford's decision and discussion ITT relates to the US market. You're shifting to the global market because you're stretching (just as you were with the Henry Ford comment).
Quote
We're talking about a vital market for mainstream manufacturers. Abandoning said market completely should be an option of absolute last resort. IMO, you're being kind of flippant here and giving the impression that you don't think it's a big deal.
Ford (and GM and Chrysler) have demonstrated over decades an inability to turn a profit in US passenger cars. Better run companies than the D3 without the D3's structural disadvantages have low margins in US passenger cars.
IMO, you're being flippant about companies pouring capital into market segments where they can't and won't turn a profit, let alone an acceptable economic return.
Quote
Toyota is probably on-track to sell more Rav4s over the next 5 years than Explorers and Escapes combined. Ford is getting completely outclassed in every important segment out there other than pickups and pony cars.
Yet Ford seems able to compete profitably in those segments. Maybe when they stop throwing good money after bad in the US passenger car market, they can better allocate capital towards improving their product lineup in profitable segments.
Quote
And maybe they didn't have a choice. If this is a last ditch effort to throw everything and the kitchen sink out before the boat slowly burbles underneath the waves, then so be it. If the decision was at all governed by other considerations, I see huge holes.
You see holes because you're basing your argument on emotion and illogical/irrelevant false ideals ("but it's their raison d'etre! I say so myself!"), not on rational analysis, facts, or economics.
Quote from: SVT_Power on May 01, 2018, 06:02:41 PM
LOL without even going into any kind of stats, those aren't even good examples of correlation.
At least use a convincing correlation like:
[img width=800 height=315]http://www.tylervigen.com/chart-pngs/3.png[/
Lol.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 01, 2018, 06:07:18 PM
Ford's decision and discussion ITT relates to the US market. You're shifting to the global market because you're stretching (just as you were with the Henry Ford comment).
I already pointed out that 4 out of the 7 non-truck top-10 domestic sellers were mainstream sedans. You cut that out of my quote and didn't respond. :huh:
QuoteFord (and GM and Chrysler) have demonstrated over decades an inability to turn a profit in US passenger cars. Better run companies than the D3 without the D3's structural disadvantages have low margins in US passenger cars.
Companies sell different products on different margins all the time. Ford abandoning a half million vehicle/year market is an extraordinary development in the history of the brand.
QuoteIMO, you're being flippant about companies pouring capital into market segments where they can't and won't turn a profit, let alone an acceptable economic return.
Yet Ford seems able to compete profitably in those segments. Maybe when they stop throwing good money after bad in the US passenger car market, they can better allocate capital towards improving their product lineup in profitable segments.
You see holes because you're basing your argument on emotion and illogical/irrelevant false ideals ("but it's their raison d'etre! I say so myself!"), not on rational analysis, facts, or economics.
Think Ford is a good buy right now? Eleven bucks a share baby! :rockon:
Quote from: Tave on May 01, 2018, 06:58:12 PM
I already pointed out that 4 out of the 7 non-truck top-10 domestic sellers were mainstream sedans. You cut that out of my quote and didn't respond. :huh:
I don't understand why you are excluding trucks for one thing. Might as well make it, "four out of four of the top ten excluding those that aren't sedans are sedans". I also don't know what post of mine this is refuting - I never said the sedan market is going to zero.
Five of the top five vehicles by sales are trucks or SUVs/CUVs (F150, Silverado, Ram, RAV4, Rogue). Sure, four of the next five are sedans - and zero of them are Fords.
But this is all moot as doesn't relate to profits, which is why I ignored the first time.
Quote
Companies sell different products on different margins all the time. Ford abandoning a half million vehicle/year market is an extraordinary development in the history of the brand.
We're not just talking about "different" margins, we are talking about consistently negative margins. And companies also cull unprofitable products all the time - the bandwagon argument is a weak one.
Quote
Think Ford is a good buy right now? Eleven bucks a share baby! :rockon:
I own some, and would buy it here if I didn't already.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 01, 2018, 07:14:58 PM
I don't understand why you are excluding trucks for one thing. Might as well make it, "four out of four of the top ten excluding those that aren't sedans are sedans". I also don't know what post of mine this is refuting - I never said the sedan market is going to zero.
Five of the top five vehicles by sales are trucks or SUVs/CUVs (F150, Silverado, Ram, RAV4, Rogue). Sure, four of the next five are sedans - and zero of them are Fords.
I isolated truck sales because they regularly clock-in at 40% fleet by volume, and represent as much the light-commercial market as they do the passenger-car market. The amount of average Joes buying full-size pickups for a personal vehicle is severely overstated by the gross sales numbers.
Again man, I'm not faulting Ford if they absolutely had to do this. I just think you're underplaying what a huge deal it is.
Even if you don't "absolutely have to" exit a segment, why continue allocating capital to a segment that you can't compete profitably in?
I don't think they necessarily had to do it, but from a shareholders perspective I think it was probably the correct, profit maximizing decision.
For the spinners on a budget, with news that Ford is gonna shit on all their cars going forward, you can no snag a brand new Focus ST for 17K. Hell of a fucking deal.
Yea I saw that. Pretty good for buyers, absolutely shitty for owners.
Quote from: Xer0 on May 01, 2018, 08:19:41 PM
For the spinners on a budget, with news that Ford is gonna shit on all their cars going forward, you can no snag a brand new Focus ST for 17K. Hell of a fucking deal.
!!!!!
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on May 01, 2018, 08:49:48 PM
Yea I saw that. Pretty good for buyers, absolutely shitty for owners.
Shitty for owners trying to sell their cars now. Wait a couple of years and used values will probably go up.
Another realization I just had is that after years of Ford having overdogs in the H and G classes in SCCA, the only vehicle they'll have that can even be used in Auto-x will be the Mustang. CUVs generally fail the rollover criteria and are barred from competition.
Quote from: MX793 on May 02, 2018, 04:31:40 AM
CUVs generally fail the rollover criteria and are barred from competition.
Sounds like...discarimination against CUV's
Quote from: SVT_Power on May 02, 2018, 08:02:12 AM
Sounds like...discarimination against CUV's
well, they are kinda high up. snooty. as in Dr. Seuss silliness which came to my mind
Sounds discriminatory against Baby Boomers with their high H-point needs. They're the real victims.
Down with barstool style seating! I like my legs out in front of my like a Formula 1 driver, whether I'm driving a sports car or an SUV.
Meh... Wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't end up as a giant PR stunt to give Trump ammo to kill CAFE standards
I mean this might be the right economic and strategic decision but it seems like a pretty big red flag too. I get that they are selling fewer sedans relative to their competitors, their own crossovers, and their past, but it's not an insignificant number either, and some tailing off is to be expected since the Fusion and Focus are pretty old at this point. If they can't make money on 200k Fusions a year then I would be pretty concerned if I was a Ford investor.
Quote from: TBR on May 05, 2018, 04:19:32 AM
I mean this might be the right economic and strategic decision but it seems like a pretty big red flag too. I get that they are selling fewer sedans relative to their competitors, their own crossovers, and their past, but it's not an insignificant number either, and some tailing off is to be expected since the Fusion and Focus are pretty old at this point. If they can't make money on 200k Fusions a year then I would be pretty concerned if I was a Ford investor.
How is this a "red flag" when it has been common knowledge for about 20+ years that the D3 don't make money on cars and make all their NA earnings on trucks/SUVs/CUVs? It wasn't exactly a secret.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 05, 2018, 05:42:15 AM
How is this a "red flag" when it has been common knowledge for about 20+ years that the D3 don't make money on cars and make all their NA earnings on trucks/SUVs/CUVs? It wasn't exactly a secret.
GM makes money on cars.
Quote from: 2o6 on May 05, 2018, 06:04:22 AM
GM makes money on cars.
GM loses money on passenger cars in aggregate last I read, and has for most of the last two decades or so. Their car margins are closer to zero than Ford's, but still negative.
Is that wrapping GM Europe's losses in that?
I can't picture GM not making money on cars like the Cavalier; that was less than 20 years ago and made using parts from the mid 1980's. That chassis was well amortized.
Quote from: 2o6 on May 05, 2018, 07:06:58 AM
Is that wrapping GM Europe's losses in that?
I can't picture GM not making money on cars like the Cavalier; that was less than 20 years ago and made using parts from the mid 1980's. That chassis was well amortized.
I believe it's just North American cars. They don't break out profitability by product line so analysts usually have to try and back it out, with plenty of assumptions etc.
It's not just the development costs (although the market has got so competitive and tech so good I imagine it does cost more to develop new models now), they have high cost UAW labor, they have too much capacity. Too much capacity and inability to cut it means they are over reliant on discounting to keep inventories in check etc.
It's hard to make money in mainstream passenger cars, I've read companies like the J3 make sub 5% margins in small cars. Toyota for example is a really really good company and doesn't have the D3's legacy/structural disadvantages, if Toyota is making a sub 5% margin on something, good luck competing with them and even breaking even.
I think we've been long overdue for a market correction. Americans don't need to buy 17 million new cars a year, especially if millions of them are sold at a loss. Average age of cars on the road keeps increasing. Once rates Rose I think that correction will happen pretty quickly. Already seeing a correction from subprime no longer being viable.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 05, 2018, 05:42:15 AM
How is this a "red flag" when it has been common knowledge for about 20+ years that the D3 don't make money on cars and make all their NA earnings on trucks/SUVs/CUVs? It wasn't exactly a secret.
I don't follow the industry in a ton of detail from a business perspective so perhaps it was common knowledge to those who do (eg Musk's buddies in the analyst community), but I had assumed the relative sales success of the 2nd generation Fusion translated to profitability. Maybe not, although I honestly don't believe that Ford lost money on the Fusion as a total program. I mean it succeeded their expectations to such a degree that they opened a new production line in Michigan (in addition to the original one in Mexico).
Regardless, it is not a good sign that Ford's leaders don't see a reasonable path to profitability in what is still a pretty big segment. I am not sure why the same thing won't happen in the crossover segment as it continues to supplant the sedan segment. Whatever massive structural disadvantage they have that causes them to lose money on a mid priced sedan made in Mexico and a small sedan whose R&D costs are shared globally (and aren't going away btw since, as far as I know, they aren't cancelling the program, just US sales) are going to apply to crossovers too.
Crossovers are subject to the same internal issues (UAW costs etc.) and even the same market pressures (lower prices than comparable imports) but ultimately they have the margin necessary to warrant building. I'd wager Ford's crossovers are not as fleet dependent as their sedans either.
R&D seems a bit DOA for Ford's mainstream offerings... yes they have the new MQB style platform and joint transmissions with GM, but all the engines are carry over stuff that have been around for close to a decade, and they don't seem quick to migrate anything below the Explorer to a new platform. I imagine what little money they are spending on R&D will go to EVs.
Quote from: TBR on May 06, 2018, 02:02:48 AM
Regardless, it is not a good sign that Ford's leaders don't see a reasonable path to profitability in what is still a pretty big segment. I am not sure why the same thing won't happen in the crossover segment as it continues to supplant the sedan segment. Whatever massive structural disadvantage they have that causes them to lose money on a mid priced sedan made in Mexico and a small sedan whose R&D costs are shared globally (and aren't going away btw since, as far as I know, they aren't cancelling the program, just US sales) are going to apply to crossovers too.
+1
The focus and fusion are world cars. They are still being developed. You would think to offest the development costs they would try to sell them globally. The US restrictions just point towards less of "we can't make them profitable" and more towards a cafe political statement and/or trying to brainwash their customers into more expensive crossovers
I wouldn't doubt there bring a press conference in a few months with CAFE standards being dropped and Trump declaring how he just saved thousands of jobs
Makes no sense to develop cars to sell at a loss. You are right that there may be some CAFE nonsense going on, but factoring in retail prices its not unfair to figure they are losing money. The Focus/Fusion are selling for like 10% below invoice... that's extreme even for the D3
Does it seem like it would take more design/enginerding to build a car compared to an SUV/truck?
The basic model for Trucks is unchaged, and plenty of room (under hood, cab, bed) to move components or tweak the design. Seems like it would take more work to design a decent car.
Quote from: r0tor on May 04, 2018, 05:35:16 AM
Meh... Wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't end up as a giant PR stunt to give Trump ammo to kill CAFE standards
Quote from: r0tor on May 06, 2018, 01:58:53 PM
The focus and fusion are world cars. They are still being developed. You would think to offest the development costs they would try to sell them globally. The US restrictions just point towards less of "we can't make them profitable" and more towards a cafe political statement and/or trying to brainwash their customers into more expensive crossovers
I wouldn't doubt there bring a press conference in a few months with CAFE standards being dropped and Trump declaring how he just saved thousands of jobs
Are you saying Ford intentionally lost money on cars for ~20 years as part of a conspiracy and in anticipate of a Trump presidency to get rid of CAFE?
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on May 07, 2018, 09:14:03 AM
Does it seem like it would take more design/enginerding to build a car compared to an SUV/truck?
The basic model for Trucks is unchaged, and plenty of room (under hood, cab, bed) to move components or tweak the design. Seems like it would take more work to design a decent car.
I would say trucks and crossovers require more engineering. I don't think engineering is a huge piece of the cost though.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 07, 2018, 09:40:55 AM
Are you saying Ford intentionally lost money on cars for ~20 years as part of a conspiracy and in anticipate of a Trump presidency to get rid of CAFE?
Correct me if I'm going, but Ford doesn't release actual profit statements on a per vehicle or per segment basis?
This is a nice 2008 article
Ford Loses $8.7 Billion; Moving to Smaller Cars
https://www.cnbc.com/id/25828411
Ford also announced a sweeping realignment of its North American operations intended to reduce its reliance on trucks and SUVs by rolling out a range of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles and converting three truck plants to make cars.
Quote from: r0tor on May 07, 2018, 10:56:27 AM
Correct me if I'm going, but Ford doesn't release actual profit statements on a per vehicle or per segment basis?
Everything I've seen/read indicates Ford hasn't made money in cars on any consistent basis and I've never seen a credible case made to the contrary.
So is your position now that Ford does consistently make money on cars and is exiting a profitable segment as part of a Trumpian conspiracy to kill cafe?
Quote from: Lebowski on May 07, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Everything I've seen/read indicates Ford hasn't made money in cars on any consistent basis and I've never seen a credible case made to the contrary.
So is your position now that Ford does consistently make money on cars and is exiting a profitable segment as part of a Trumpian conspiracy to kill cafe?
So if Ford doesn't release the numbers, "everything you read" is ???
Quote from: r0tor on May 07, 2018, 10:58:34 AM
This is a nice 2008 article
Ford Loses $8.7 Billion; Moving to Smaller Cars
https://www.cnbc.com/id/25828411
Ford also announced a sweeping realignment of its North American operations intended to reduce its reliance on trucks and SUVs by rolling out a range of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles and converting three truck plants to make cars.
A lot has changed in 10 years.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on May 07, 2018, 11:56:14 AM
A lot has changed in 10 years.
Yeah but the argument put forth so far has been that Ford has been losing money on cars for decades.
Quote from: r0tor on May 07, 2018, 11:43:48 AM
So if Ford doesn't release the numbers, "everything you read" is ???
Estimates, based on large part on public information Ford and peers do release (production volumes, transaction prices, capacity/utilization, labor costs, material costs, commentary wrt contribution margins by class etc). If you've put together better estimates by all means share them, in the meantime it's hardly controversial to say Ford loses money in cars, and that the mainstream car market is low margin even for better run import competitors.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on May 07, 2018, 12:30:54 PM
Yeah but the argument put forth so far has been that Ford has been losing money on cars for decades.
They probably shifted from prioritizing market share to profit (albeit pretty damn abruptly).
We watched a video put out by Ford on this today. It basically said with no mileage penalty, 75% of buyers prefer the added interior space in all segments.
Quote from: shp4man on May 07, 2018, 02:00:38 PM
We watched a video put out by Ford on this today. It basically said with no mileage penalty, 75% of buyers prefer the added interior space in all segments.
75% of buyers are hoarders.
75% of buyers prefer more space 100% of the time. :praise:
Quote from: shp4man on May 07, 2018, 02:00:38 PM
We watched a video put out by Ford on this today. It basically said with no mileage penalty, 75% of buyers prefer the added interior space in all segments.
Funny; a lot of Ford vehicles are mediocre with respect to interior space.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 07, 2018, 12:38:57 PM
Estimates, based on large part on public information Ford and peers do release (production volumes, transaction prices, capacity/utilization, labor costs, material costs, commentary wrt contribution margins by class etc). If you've put together better estimates by all means share them, in the meantime it's hardly controversial to say Ford loses money in cars, and that the mainstream car market is low margin even for better run import competitors.
So junk you make up.. ok
Quote from: r0tor on May 07, 2018, 03:01:14 PM
So junk you make up.. ok
:huh:
An example of making something up would be your cafe consipiracy theory, which is nonsensical regardless of passenger cars' profitability.
Quote from: Lebowski on May 07, 2018, 03:05:02 PM
:huh:
An example of making something up would be your cafe consipiracy theory, which is nonsensical regardless of passenger cars' profitability.
There is a difference between proposing a theory and acting like your opinion is a fact
Quote from: Lebowski on May 07, 2018, 03:05:02 PM
:huh:
An example of making something up would be your cafe consipiracy theory, which is nonsensical regardless of passenger cars' profitability.
Is it really? That's exactly Trump's negotiating style. Seems like a smart business move.
Quote from: r0tor on May 07, 2018, 03:07:56 PM
There is a difference between proposing a theory and acting like your opinion is a fact
It's not my opinion, it's the opinion of those who follow and publish estimates for the industry and who's research I read. It's also apparently the opinion of Ford management.
According to the video, it's also a status/coolness thing. SUVs/CUVs are supposedly way more statusy/cooler than sedans or minivans. No kidding. Marketing garbage or real? Not sure.
Maybe they should do a Mustang wagon thing- like that old Volvo one. :lol:
Quote from: shp4man on May 07, 2018, 04:25:34 PM
According to the video, it's also a status/coolness thing. SUVs/CUVs are supposedly way more statusy/cooler than sedans or minivans. No kidding. Marketing garbage or real? Not sure.
:huh:
CUV/SUV/crossover/whatevers are generally much more spacious and versatile than their sedan/hatchback counterparts, and I believe for that reason alone they're becoming more popular. Of my friends and acquaintances who've bought new cars in the last few years:
• 30 y.o./single/no kids: replaced a GMC Terrain with a Chevy Trax
• 31/longterm relationship/no kids: replaced a Jeep Patriot with a Toyota Tacoma
• 33 & 35/married/one 2 y.o.: replaced a Mazda 3 hatchback with a Ford Explorer; looking to replace a GMC Sierra 1500 with an entry-lux sedan (leaning heavily toward a Genesis G70)
• 33 & 34/married/one 2 y.o.: replaced a Toyota Corolla with a RAV4
• 35/married/one 2 y.o.: replaced a Kia Soul with a Honda Odyssey
• 37/longterm relationship/no kids: replaced a Toyota Tercel with a VW Jetta; Jetta was a lemon, replaced with a VW Golf Wagon
• 43/married/three kids: replaced a Toyota Tacoma with a RAV4
• 30 & 32/married/one kid on the way: bought a Ford F-150 crewcab
• 30 y.o./single/no kids: replaced a Pontiac Grand Prix with a Honda Accord Coupe; regrets this decision, looking to replace it with an SUV
• 34 y.o./single/no kids: bought a Ford Focus, sold it about a year later; lives downtown, didn't need a car at all
The pattern is definitely replacing smaller vehicles with an SUV or truck. The outliers have mitigating circumstances for buying something smaller (e.g. Tercel-->Jetta-->Golf was because an SUV won't fit in their condo parking stall) or regret their decision and want something bigger (e.g. Grand Prix-->Accord).
The only one who went from something bigger to something smaller was the latest one (Terrain-->Trax). :huh:
Quote from: r0tor on May 07, 2018, 03:07:56 PM
There is a difference between proposing a theory and acting like your opinion is a fact
You do the latter and act as though you're doing the former....
I mean let's really think the CAFE thing through. If Ford's aim was to get rid of CAFE to be able to stop selling sedans, why would they stop selling sedans BEFORE they got rid of CAFE? How is getting rid of sedans some kind of pitch to get rid of CAFE? The theory doesn't make any sense.
What makes much more sense is that Ford realizes that paying customers to take their cars away is bad business. So they won't sell them where that is the case. Not very hard logic to follow
They announced the stop sale a few years in advance and ate still making cars... There is now huge pressure and incentive to save tons of jobs sitting out there combined with Trump's hatred of all things environmental and Obama
As I understand it no US jobs will be lost. They are going to kill overseas production of Fords sold here and use US manufacturing capacity to make nothing but the high profit high riders.
There are different CAFE limits for cars and trucks. Crossovers are classified as trucks. By getting rid of cars, Ford doesn't have to worry about the zany car CAFE limit. By replacing cars with relatively fuel efficient (by truck standards) crossovers, they make it easier for their truck fleet, which is where the volume is, to meet truck CAFE. Whether Trump backs off on CAFE or not, I suspect it was a motivator here.
Quote from: MX793 on May 08, 2018, 07:13:28 AM
There are different CAFE limits for cars and trucks. Crossovers are classified as trucks. By getting rid of cars, Ford doesn't have to worry about the zany car CAFE limit. By replacing cars with relatively fuel efficient (by truck standards) crossovers, they make it easier for their truck fleet, which is where the volume is, to meet truck CAFE. Whether Trump backs off on CAFE or not, I suspect it was a motivator here.
I wonder if the Focus Active will be classified as a light truck.
Quote from: 2o6 on May 08, 2018, 08:01:00 AM
I wonder if the Focus Active will be classified as a light truck.
They may need to class it as a car to offset the Mustang, but maybe they can use the 4 banger Stang to keep that out of the penalty. Or they just eat the penalty since Mustang volume isn't that high.
Will be funny if the next admin rolls trucks and crossovers under CAFE. But the way things are looking an F150 will be doing 25-30 MPG combined with a mild hybrid setup and 30AT
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on May 08, 2018, 11:20:20 AM
Will be funny if the next admin rolls trucks and crossovers under CAFE. But the way things are looking an F150 will be doing 25-30 MPG combined with a mild hybrid setup and 30AT
Trucks/SUVs are already under CAFE. There are 2 CAFE averages mfrs need to meet. One for cars and one for light trucks (includes half-tons). The Obama era regs call for light truck CAFE to be 30 mpg.
Quote from: Submariner on April 26, 2018, 02:03:59 PM
Woah. It's been a while. How have you been?
Ah, sorry for the late reply! Got busy at work then went on a vacation. Pretty good! Made some moves, added a couple of cars and will be getting married later this year. How about yourself? Good to still see some of you around!
Quote from: giant_mtb on April 26, 2018, 02:05:26 PM
Who the heck is Hurricane Steve? I have a buddy named Steve for whom that name would make perfect sense, but. :lol:
Ha! I'm a frequent lurker who half the time can't remember their password so whatever response I had planned ends up going to waste.
Quote from: HurricaneSteve on May 10, 2018, 01:04:33 PM
Ha! I'm a frequent lurker who half the time can't remember their password so whatever response I had planned ends up going to waste.
:lol:
Welcome (back?) to the madness. :praise:
Damn, this kind of bums me out. Fiesta ST we don't get. I prefer 3 bangers to 4s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFneaU_8Ww4
Pretty awesome that you can get an LSD in this thing. I love that automakers are offering LSD's more and more now than ever before. The 8th gen Si getting one was a novelty that set it apart now it seems like you can get them on everything.
I think the GTI just got rid of theirs. But yea, seems like a no brainer for high power FWD cars. Loved the one in my H22 Accord
Yikes, I think you're right. Just built one and all it says is "Cross Differential System XDS+" which I'm assuming is some brake based LSD. Although they are announcing a higher performance GTI that has it so this is probably them trying to build differentiation between models.
It's kind of in the middle. It's a Haldex E-diff that doesn't quite work as well (13:41)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYjEHQjEzMw&t=821
I'm feeling like VW went this route to leverage their relationship with Haldex. Kind of a bummer
Not quite sure what the US gets, for Europe the ""regular" GTI has brake assisted LSD, the Performance version has a mechanical LSD.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on May 18, 2018, 09:05:53 AM
Damn, this kind of bums me out. Fiesta ST we don't get. I prefer 3 bangers to 4s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFneaU_8Ww4
*sigh* I'd trade in the Focus for this. A 2 door hot hatch is one of the few cars I'd buy new.
You can get the current car for like 16k new in the states. You want ford to offer this stuff you gotta act now.
Quote from: Xer0 on May 19, 2018, 08:51:46 AM
You can get the current car for like 16k new in the states. You want ford to offer this stuff you gotta act now.
2 door?
Only ever offered as a 4 door in the states.
Quote from: Xer0 on May 19, 2018, 10:16:01 AM
Only ever offered as a 4 door in the states.
Same up here. I know the market is small, but I'm fond of small 2 door hot hatches.
Heh, if I were to go back in time, I'd have picked a 4 door GTI instead of mine. Mine looks better, but having 2 doors is pretty fucking annoying on a day to day basis
Quote from: CALL_911 on May 19, 2018, 10:35:19 AM
Heh, if I were to go back in time, I'd have picked a 4 door GTI instead of mine. Mine looks better, but having 2 doors is pretty fucking annoying on a day to day basis
If you regularly have passengers, sure. I don't, and to me 2 doors looks better, is slightly lighter, makes for better ingress/egress, and is far more sporty.
In a few years, when Ford is no longer building this type of car at any price point, letting the number of doors hold you up will seem petty.
Quote from: CALL_911 on May 19, 2018, 10:35:19 AM
Heh, if I were to go back in time, I'd have picked a 4 door GTI instead of mine. Mine looks better, but having 2 doors is pretty fucking annoying on a day to day basis
I actually think the 4-door GTI looks better than the 2-door from GenV and beyond. The Fiesta works well as a 3-door because it's a little swoopier (like the Scirocco) and smaller.
Quote from: MX793 on May 19, 2018, 10:56:17 AM
I actually think the 4-door GTI looks better than the 2-door from GenV and beyond. The Fiesta works well as a 3-door because it's a little swoopier (like the Scirocco) and smaller.
I always thought the 4 door GTI looked like a clown car- too many doors on too small a body.
But idk what it is, I think the 4 door MKVII looks way better than the 4 door MKVI.
Quote from: Rockraven on May 19, 2018, 10:44:44 AM
If you regularly have passengers, sure. I don't, and to me 2 doors looks better, is slightly lighter, makes for better ingress/egress, and is far more sporty.
Even without passengers, it's nice for things like groceries or even carrying my backpack- being able to just throw shit in the back seat rather than use the trunk. More sporty? It's the same car!
Going from my Beetle to my Crosstrek and very often carrying kids in the backseat, the two doors in the Beetle never bothered me. My older kid was/is coordinated and strong enough to open the passenger door from the backseat and let herself out without me having to open up the passenger side door for her.
I think the 5 door fiesta is lighter than the 3door.
That reminds me, I parked next to a Fiesta ST the other day. If it were out when I got the GTI, it would've been a serious contender. I really like that thing.
I probably should have looked at the GTI when I was car shopping....
Oh, BTW - the Focus Active is cancelled for the US.
Quote from: 2o6 on August 31, 2018, 10:36:24 PM
Oh, BTW - the Focus Active is cancelled for the US.
Was it to be built in Mexico? Interesting it was cancelled right after the beautiful US - Mexico "trade deal".
China I think
Quote from: Rockraven on September 01, 2018, 05:12:01 AM
Was it to be built in Mexico? Interesting it was cancelled right after the beautiful US - Mexico "trade deal".
Nah. Ford was building a plant here for the Focus. It got cancelled at a very early stage right after Trump's election. Trump of course celebrated that. A few months later Ford announced it would actually build the Focus in China now and bring zero jobs back to the US. Fast forward to know and facing 25% tariffs from China Ford sure is looking stupid for cancelling the plant here.
Now, the only entry level car Ford has is the EcoSport. Which is a bad vehicle.
And it's made in India.
Quote from: MexicoCityM3 on September 01, 2018, 08:19:45 AM
Nah. Ford was building a plant here for the Focus. It got cancelled at a very early stage right after Trump's election. Trump of course celebrated that. A few months later Ford announced it would actually build the Focus in China now and bring zero jobs back to the US. Fast forward to know and facing 25% tariffs from China Ford sure is looking stupid for cancelling the plant here.
Another nail in Fords coffin